A pathway to sustainable development in China: The impact of local higher education expenditure on green total factor productivity.

With the global warming crisis looming, the question of how to advance green total factor productivity (GTFP) has become an important concern confronting many developing countries. Although existing studies have demonstrated that total human capital can improve GTFP, the research has neglected to consider the influence of local higher education expenditure (LHEE), and no research has examined how LHEE spatially affect GTFP. Therefore, based on spatial economics theory, this study explores the spatial autocorrelation of LHEE and GTFP in China's 30 provinces from 2004 to 2021, employing a spatial Durbin model to analyze the spillover effect and influence mechanism of LHEE on GTFP. The results reveal that LHEE and GTFP exhibit positive global spatial autocorrelation. LHEE primarily improves GTFP and its subcomponents through spillover effects. The positive spillover effects in the three regions of China are significantly higher than the direct effects, whereas the direct effects in the eastern and central regions are positive but insignificant. Furthermore, LHEE promotes GTFP by advancing green technological innovation. The findings provide valuable insights to help policymakers address sustainable development goal 4 and develop synergistic regional GTFP growth policies to establish sustainable societies worldwide.