Department of Haematology, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Zhoukou Central Hospital, Zhoukou, China.
J Glob Health. 2024 Aug 23;14:04150. doi: 10.7189/jogh.14.04150.
Leukaemia is a devastating disease with an incidence that progressively increases with advancing age. The World Health Organization has designated 2021-30 as the decade of healthy ageing, highlighting the need to address age-related diseases. We estimated the disease burden of leukaemia and forecasted it by 2030.
Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database, we systematically analysed the geographical distribution of leukaemia and its subtypes. We used Joinpoint regression and Bayesian age-period-cohort models to evaluate incidence and mortality trends from 1990 to 2019 and projections through 2030. We analysed five leukaemia subtypes and the impact of age, gender, and social development. Decomposition analysis revealed the effects of disease burden on ageing and population growth. We used frontier analysis to illustrate the potential of each country to reduce its burden based on its development levels.
Globally, the absolute numbers of leukaemia incidence and mortality have increased, while the age-standardised rates (ASRs) have shown a decreasing trend. The disease burden was more pronounced in men, the elderly, and regions with a high socio-demographic index (SDI), where ageing and population growth played varying roles across subtypes. From 2000 to 2006, disease burdens were most effectively controlled. Global ASRs of incidence might stabilise, while ASRs of death are expected to decrease until 2030. Frontier analysis showed that middle and high-middle SDI countries have the most improvement potential. Smoking and high body mass index were the main risk factors for leukaemia-related mortality and disability-adjusted life years.
The absolute number of leukaemia cases has increased worldwide, but there has been a sharp decline in ASRs over the past decade, primarily driven by population growth and ageing. Countries with middle and high-middle SDI urgently need to take action to address this challenge.
白血病是一种毁灭性疾病，其发病率随着年龄的增长而逐渐增加。世界卫生组织已将 2021-2030 年指定为健康老龄化十年，强调需要解决与年龄相关的疾病。我们估算了白血病的疾病负担，并对 2030 年的情况进行了预测。
我们基于 2019 年全球疾病负担数据库，系统地分析了白血病及其亚型的地理分布。我们使用 Joinpoint 回归和贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型，评估了 1990 年至 2019 年的发病率和死亡率趋势，并对 2030 年的情况进行了预测。我们分析了五种白血病亚型以及年龄、性别和社会发展的影响。分解分析揭示了疾病负担对人口老龄化和人口增长的影响。我们使用前沿分析来说明每个国家根据其发展水平降低疾病负担的潜力。
全球范围内，白血病发病率和死亡率的绝对值有所增加，而年龄标准化率（ASR）呈下降趋势。该疾病的负担在男性、老年人和社会人口指数（SDI）较高的地区更为严重，在这些地区，各亚型的疾病负担受到人口老龄化和人口增长的不同影响。从 2000 年到 2006 年，疾病负担的控制效果最为显著。全球发病率的 ASR 可能会稳定，而死亡率的 ASR 预计将在 2030 年之前下降。前沿分析表明，中高 SDI 国家具有最大的改善潜力。吸烟和高身体质量指数是白血病相关死亡率和伤残调整生命年的主要危险因素。
全球白血病病例的绝对数量有所增加，但过去十年中 ASR 急剧下降，主要原因是人口增长和人口老龄化。中高 SDI 国家迫切需要采取行动应对这一挑战。
