Lancet. 2018 Nov 10;392(10159):1923-1994. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6. Epub 2018 Nov 8.
BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations. METHODS: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. FINDINGS: In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. INTERPRETATION: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
背景:全球疾病、伤害和危险因素研究(GBD)2017 年比较风险评估(CRA)是一种全面的风险因素量化方法,为综合风险与风险后果关联研究提供了有用的工具。随着每年进行一次 GBD 研究,我们会对 GBD CRA 进行更新,纳入改进的方法、新的风险和风险后果关联,以及关于风险暴露水平和风险后果关联的新数据。
方法:我们使用 GBD 之前迭代研究开发的 CRA 框架,来估计 1990 年至 2017 年期间 84 种行为、环境和职业以及代谢风险或风险组的年龄组、性别、年份和地点的暴露、归因死亡和归因残疾调整生命年(DALY)水平和趋势。本研究纳入了 476 种具有令人信服或可能的因果关系证据的风险后果关联。我们从 46 499 项随机对照试验、队列研究、家庭调查、人口普查数据、卫星数据和其他来源中提取相对风险和暴露估计值。我们使用统计模型来汇总数据、调整偏差并纳入协变量。通过理论最小风险暴露水平(TMREL)的反事实情景,我们估计了给定风险导致的死亡和 DALY 的比例。我们通过对社会发展指数(SDI)与风险加权暴露流行率的关系进行建模,探讨了发展与风险暴露之间的关系,并估计了 SDI 下预期的暴露和归因负担水平。最后,我们通过分解这些变化的六个主要驱动因素来探讨归因于风险的 DALY 的时间变化:(1)人口增长;(2)人口年龄结构的变化;(3)环境和职业风险暴露的变化;(4)行为风险暴露的变化;(5)代谢风险暴露的变化;以及(6)所有其他因素的变化,近似为我们降低 2017 年 GBD 中所有风险因素的 TMREL 水平时所观察到的风险删除死亡率和 DALY 率,其中风险删除率是如果我们将所有 GBD 风险因素的暴露水平降低到 TMREL 水平时,我们将观察到的死亡率和 DALY 率。
发现:2017 年,3410 万人(95%置信区间[UI]333-350)归因于 GBD 风险因素的死亡和 12.11 亿(11.41-12.81)DALY。全球范围内,61.0%(59.6-62.4)的死亡和 48.3%(46.3-50.2)的 DALY 归因于 2017 年 GBD 风险因素。按照归因于风险的 DALY 进行排名,高血压(SBP)是主要的风险因素,导致 1040 万人(939-1150)死亡和 2.18 亿(1.98-2.37)DALY,其次是吸烟(710 万人[683-737]死亡和 1820 万人[173-193]DALY)、高空腹血糖(653 万人[523-823]死亡和 1710 万人[144-201]DALY)、高 BMI(472 万人[299-670]死亡和 1480 万人[98.6-202]DALY)和出生体重的早产(143 万人[136-151]死亡和 1390 万人[131-147]DALY)。总的来说,2007 年至 2017 年期间归因于风险的 DALY 下降了 4.9%(3.3-6.5)。在没有人口变化(即人口增长和老龄化)的情况下,风险暴露和风险删除 DALY 的变化将导致在此期间 DALY 减少 23.5%。相反,在没有风险暴露和风险删除 DALY 变化的情况下,人口变化将导致在此期间 DALY 增加 18.6%。1990 年至 2017 年期间,不安全饮用水和家庭空气污染的 O/E 比值在全球范围内均呈上升趋势。这一结果表明,发展速度快于人口中潜在风险结构的变化。相反,几乎普遍下降的吸烟和饮酒的 O/E 比值表明,对于给定的 SDI,这些风险的暴露正在下降。2017 年,四个超级区域(中欧、东欧和中亚、北非和中东、南亚以及东南亚、东亚和大洋洲)年龄标准化 DALY 率的主要 4 级风险因素是高 SBP。在高收入超级区域,主要风险因素是吸烟,在拉丁美洲和加勒比地区是高 BMI,在撒哈拉以南非洲地区是不安全的性行为。撒哈拉以南非洲地区不安全性行为的 O/E 比值明显较高,北非和中东地区的饮酒 O/E 比值明显较低。
解释:通过量化风险因素暴露水平和由此导致的疾病负担的趋势,本评估提供了一个洞察,了解过去的政策和方案努力可能在哪里取得了成功,并强调了当前公共卫生行动的优先事项。行为、环境和职业风险的减少在很大程度上抵消了人口增长和老龄化对绝对负担趋势的影响。相反,代谢风险的增加和人口老龄化的结合可能会继续推动全球非传染性疾病的上升趋势,这既是公共卫生的挑战,也是机会。我们看到风险暴露和归因于风险的负担水平存在相当大的时空异质性。尽管发展水平是造成这种异质性的部分原因,但 O/E 比值显示出各国在相对于其发展水平上的风险表现。因此,这些比值提供了一个基准工具,有助于将地方决策重点放在这方面。我们的发现强调了风险暴露监测和流行病学研究对于评估风险与健康结果之间因果关系的重要性,并强调了 GBD 研究在综合数据以得出全面而有力的结论方面的有用性,这些结论有助于为良好的政策和战略性卫生规划提供信息。
资金来源:比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会。
Lancet. 2018-2-17
World J Psychiatry. 2017-3-22