School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, People's Republic of China.
State Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
PLoS One. 2024 Aug 27;19(8):e0309367. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0309367. eCollection 2024.
In order to predict the global potential distribution range of Ixodes pacificus (I. pacificus) under different climate scenario models in the future, analyze the major climate factors affecting its distribution, and provide references for the transformation of passive vector surveillance into active vector surveillance, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used in this study to estimate the global potential distribution range of I. pacificus under historical climate scenarios and different future climate scenarios. The global distribution data of I. pacificus were screened by ENMtools and ArcGIS 10.8 software, and a total of 563 distribution data of I. pacificus were obtained. Maxent 3.4.1 and R 4.0.3 were used to screen climate variables according to the contribution rate of environmental variables, knife cutting method and correlation analysis of variables. R 4.0.3 was used to calculate model regulation frequency doubling and feature combination to adjust MaxEnt parameters. The model results showed that the training omission rate was in good agreement with the theoretical omission rate, and the area under ROC curve (AUC) value of the model was 0.978. Among the included environmental variables, the Tmin2 (minimum temperature in February) and Prec1 (precipitation in January) contributed the most to the model, providing more effective information for the distribution of I. pacificus. MaxEnt model revealed that the distribution range of I. pacificus was dynamically changing. The main potential suitable areas are distributed in North America, South America, Europe, Oceania and Asia. Under the future climate scenario model, the potential suitable areas show a downward trend, but the countries and regions ieeeeeeenvolved in the suitable areas do not change much. Therefore, the invasion risk of the potential suitable area of I. pacificus should be paid attention to.
为了预测未来不同气候情景模型下的太平洋硬蜱（Ixodes pacificus，I. pacificus）全球潜在分布范围，分析影响其分布的主要气候因素，为将被动媒介监测转变为主动媒介监测提供参考，本研究采用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）估计了历史气候情景和不同未来气候情景下 I. pacificus 的全球潜在分布范围。通过 ENMtools 和 ArcGIS 10.8 软件筛选 I. pacificus 的全球分布数据，共获得 563 个 I. pacificus 分布数据。Maxent 3.4.1 和 R 4.0.3 用于根据环境变量的贡献率、刀割法和变量相关性分析筛选气候变量。R 4.0.3 用于计算模型调节频率加倍和特征组合以调整 MaxEnt 参数。模型结果表明，训练遗漏率与理论遗漏率吻合较好，模型的 ROC 曲线下面积（AUC）值为 0.978。在包含的环境变量中，Tmin2（2 月最低温度）和 Prec1（1 月降水）对模型的贡献最大，为 I. pacificus 的分布提供了更有效的信息。MaxEnt 模型揭示了 I. pacificus 的分布范围在动态变化。主要潜在适宜区分布在北美洲、南美洲、欧洲、大洋洲和亚洲。在未来气候情景模型下，潜在适宜区呈下降趋势，但适宜区涉及的国家和地区变化不大。因此，应注意潜在适宜区的 I. pacificus 入侵风险。
