Gutiérrez-Cárdenas Gabriel Santiago, Díaz Diana C, Villegas-Bolaños Nancy Liliana
Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Marinas, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, 23096, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico.
Departamento de Ciencias Básicas y Modelado, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, 110821, Bogotá D.C., Colombia.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2025 Feb;32(6):3277-3296. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-34721-9. Epub 2024 Aug 28.
The Central-Pacific (CP) and Eastern-Pacific (EP) types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and their ocean-atmosphere effect cause diverse responses in the hydroclimatological patterns of specific regions. Given the impact of ENSO diversity on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), this study aimed to determine the relationship between the ENSO-NAO teleconnection and the ENSO-influenced precipitation patterns in Colombia during the December-February period. Precipitation data from 1981 to 2023, obtained from the Climate Hazards Group (CHIRPS), were analyzed using nine ENSO and NAO indices spanning from 1951 to 2023. Using Pearson's correlation and mutual information (MI) techniques, nine scenarios were devised, encompassing the CP and EP ENSO events, neutral years, and volcanic eruptions. The results suggest a shift in the direction of the ENSO-NAO relationship when distinguishing between the CP and EP events. Higher linear correlations were observed in the CP ENSO scenarios (r > 0.65) using the MEI and BEST indices, while lower correlations were observed when considering EP events along with the Niño 3 and Niño 1.2 indices. MI show difference in relationships based on the event type and the ENSO index used. Notably, an increase in the non-linear relationship was observed for the EP scenarios with respect to correlation. Both teleconnections followed a similar pattern, exhibiting a more substantial impact during CP ENSO events. This highlights the significance of investigating the impacts of ENSO on hydrometeorological variables in the context of adapting to climate change, while acknowledging the intricate diversity inherent to the ENSO phenomenon.
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的中太平洋（CP）型和东太平洋（EP）型及其海气效应，在特定区域的水文气候模式中引发了多样的响应。鉴于ENSO多样性对北大西洋涛动（NAO）的影响，本研究旨在确定12月至次年2月期间，ENSO-NAO遥相关与ENSO影响下的哥伦比亚降水模式之间的关系。利用1951年至2023年的9个ENSO和NAO指数，对气候灾害组（CHIRPS）提供的1981年至2023年降水数据进行了分析。运用皮尔逊相关和互信息（MI）技术，设计了9种情景，涵盖CP和EP ENSO事件、中性年份以及火山爆发。结果表明，区分CP和EP事件时，ENSO-NAO关系的方向发生了转变。在使用MEI和BEST指数的CP ENSO情景中，观察到更高的线性相关性（r > 0.65），而在考虑EP事件以及Niño 3和Niño 1.2指数时，相关性较低。MI显示，基于事件类型和所使用的ENSO指数，关系存在差异。值得注意的是，就相关性而言，EP情景的非线性关系有所增加。两种遥相关都遵循类似模式，在CP ENSO事件期间表现出更大的影响。这凸显了在适应气候变化的背景下，研究ENSO对水文气象变量影响的重要性，同时也认识到ENSO现象固有的复杂多样性。
