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游走的醉汉追踪斐波那契兔子:共享市场观点的存在如何改变不确定性的结果。

Wandering Drunkards Walk after Fibonacci Rabbits: How the Presence of Shared Market Opinions Modifies the Outcome of Uncertainty.

作者信息

Maloumian Nicolas

机构信息

R&D, Primum Tempus, 66 Prescot Street, London E1 8NN, UK.

出版信息

Entropy (Basel). 2024 Aug 13;26(8):686. doi: 10.3390/e26080686.

Abstract

Shared market opinions and beliefs by market participants generate a set of constraints that mediate information through a not-so-unstable system of expected target prices. Price trajectories, within these sets of constraints, confirm or disprove the likelihood of participant expectations and cannot, de facto, be considered permutable, as literature has shown, since their inner structure is dynamically affected by their own progress, suggesting per se the presence of both heat and cycles. This study described and discussed how trajectories are built using different alphabets and suggests that prices follow an ergodic course within structurally similar tessellation classes. It is reported that the courses of price moves are self-similar due to their a priori structure, and they do not need to be complete in order to create the conditions, in resembling conditions, for the appearance of the well-known and commonly used Fibonacci ratios between price trajectories. To date, financial models and engineering are mostly based on the mathematics of randomness. If these theoretical findings need empirical validation, such a potential infrastructure of ratios would suggest the possibility for a superstructure to exist, in other words, the emergence of exploitable patterns.

摘要

市场参与者共同的市场观点和信念产生了一系列约束条件,这些约束条件通过一个并非极不稳定的预期目标价格系统来调节信息。在这些约束条件范围内,价格轨迹证实或否定了参与者预期的可能性,事实上,正如文献所示,它们不能被视为可置换的,因为它们的内部结构会受到自身发展动态的影响,这本身就表明了热度和周期的存在。本研究描述并讨论了如何使用不同字母构建轨迹,并表明价格在结构相似的镶嵌类别中遵循遍历过程。据报道,价格走势的过程由于其先验结构而具有自相似性,并且它们无需完整就能在类似条件下为价格轨迹之间出现众所周知且常用的斐波那契比率创造条件。迄今为止,金融模型和工程大多基于随机性数学。如果这些理论发现需要实证验证,这样一个潜在的比率基础设施将暗示存在上层结构的可能性,换句话说,就是可利用模式的出现。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3f79/11353699/f85ca1bb0572/entropy-26-00686-g001.jpg

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