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气候波动的滞后效应是否比其直接效应对全球渔业产生更大的影响?

Can the delayed effects of climatic oscillations have a greater influence on global fisheries compared to their immediate effects?

机构信息

Department of Environmental Biology and Fishery Science, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung City, Taiwan.

Center of Excellence for the Oceans, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung City, Taiwan.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2024 Aug 29;19(8):e0307644. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307644. eCollection 2024.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0307644
PMID:39208030
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11361439/
Abstract

Climatic oscillations affect fish population dynamics, ecological processes, and fishing operations in maritime habitats. This study examined how climatic oscillations affect catch rates for striped, blue, and silver marlins in the Atlantic Ocean. These oscillations are regarded as the primary factor influencing the abundance and accessibility of specific resources utilized by fishers. Logbook data were obtained from Taiwanese large-scale fishing vessels for climatic oscillations during the period 2005-2016. The results indicated that the effect of the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole on marlin catch rates did not have a lag, whereas those of the North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole had various lags. Pearson's correlation analysis was conducted to examine the correlations between atmospheric oscillation indices and marlin catch rates, and wavelet analysis was employed to describe the influences of the most relevant lags. The results indicated that annual atmospheric fluctuations and their lags affected the abundance and catchability of striped, blue, and silver marlins in the study region. This, in turn, may affect the presence of these species in the market and lead to fluctuations in their prices in accordance with supply and demand. Overall, understanding the effects of climatic oscillations on fish species are essential for policymakers and coastal communities seeking to manage marine resources, predict changes in marine ecosystems, and establish appropriate methods for controlling the effects of climate variability.

摘要

气候振荡会影响海洋生境中的鱼类种群动态、生态过程和捕捞作业。本研究探讨了气候振荡如何影响大西洋中条纹马林鱼、蓝马林鱼和银马林鱼的捕捞量。这些振荡被认为是影响鱼类利用的特定资源丰度和可及性的主要因素。本研究使用 2005-2016 年来自台湾大型渔船的航海日志数据,研究了气候振荡的影响。结果表明,热带印度洋偶极子对马林鱼捕捞量的影响没有滞后,而北大西洋涛动、大西洋多年代际振荡、太平洋十年涛动和印度洋偶极子的影响则存在不同的滞后。通过皮尔逊相关分析检验了大气振荡指数与马林鱼捕捞量之间的相关性,并用小波分析描述了最相关滞后的影响。结果表明,年际大气波动及其滞后影响了研究区域中条纹马林鱼、蓝马林鱼和银马林鱼的丰度和可捕捞性。这反过来可能会影响这些物种在市场上的存在,并根据供求关系导致其价格波动。总的来说,了解气候振荡对鱼类物种的影响对于政策制定者和沿海社区管理海洋资源、预测海洋生态系统变化以及建立控制气候变异性影响的适当方法至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5099/11361439/d1f2896c9eaa/pone.0307644.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5099/11361439/1e4ce12acde0/pone.0307644.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5099/11361439/7eae95a5d3d4/pone.0307644.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5099/11361439/d1f2896c9eaa/pone.0307644.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5099/11361439/1e4ce12acde0/pone.0307644.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5099/11361439/7eae95a5d3d4/pone.0307644.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5099/11361439/d1f2896c9eaa/pone.0307644.g003.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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Sci Rep. 2023 Dec 17;13(1):22438. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-49984-4.
2
Combined influence of ENSO and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on Eurasian Steppe during 1982-2018.1982-2018 年 ENSO 和北大西洋涛动(NAO)对欧亚草原的综合影响。
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Sep 20;892:164735. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164735. Epub 2023 Jun 8.
3
Status and challenges for sustainable billfish fisheries in the Western Indian Ocean.
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Rev Fish Biol Fish. 2022;32(4):1035-1061. doi: 10.1007/s11160-022-09725-8. Epub 2022 Sep 23.
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Effects of decadal climate variability on spatiotemporal distribution of Indo-Pacific yellowfin tuna population.年代际气候变化对印度洋-太平洋黄鳍金枪鱼种群时空分布的影响。
Sci Rep. 2022 Aug 12;12(1):13715. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-17882-w.
5
The impact of climate variables on marine fish production: an empirical evidence from Bangladesh based on autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach.气候变量对海洋鱼类产量的影响:基于自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法的孟加拉国实证证据。
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Dec;29(58):87923-87937. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-21845-z. Epub 2022 Jul 12.
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Increased Indian Ocean-North Atlantic Ocean warming chain under greenhouse warming.在温室变暖情况下印度洋 - 北大西洋变暖链增强。
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