Huang Ying, Guo Hongxu, Liu Zhen, Liao Cuiping, Zhao Daiqing
School of Engineering Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, Anhui, China.
Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510640, Guangdong, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Aug 30;14(1):20186. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-70919-0.
Energy transitions is an effective way to achieve sustainable development in the transportation sector. To explore the pathways to energy transitions in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) transportation sector, the article evaluated the potential of energy savings and CO emission reduction of different measures in a quantitative way, based on the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) platform. The marginal abatement cost curves are used to visually reflect the cost-benefit of these measures, and to develop cost-effective pathways to energy transitions. The results show that the measures of transportation modes adjustment and private cars regulating should be prioritized due to the potential of significant emission reduction with good cost-effectiveness. The measures of promoting electricity and hydrogen energy have large emission reduction potential, but only those for road traffic are cost-effective, and should be treated with a lower priority. Considering the high cost, the measures of promoting biofuel should be implemented as least priority. Moreover, the measures of liquefied natural gas (LNG) application have good cost-effectiveness, as opposed to limited CO emission reduction potential. It can only be used as a transitional fuel for the energy transitions. The findings and research methodology will provide theoretical support for the formulation of transportation energy transition pathways in the GBA and other regions.
能源转型是实现交通运输部门可持续发展的有效途径。为探索粤港澳大湾区交通运输部门的能源转型路径，本文基于长期能源替代规划（LEAP）平台，以定量方式评估了不同措施的节能和碳排放减排潜力。边际减排成本曲线用于直观反映这些措施的成本效益，并制定具有成本效益的能源转型路径。结果表明，由于具有显著减排潜力且成本效益良好，交通模式调整和私家车调控措施应优先考虑。推广电力和氢能的措施具有较大的减排潜力，但只有道路交通方面的措施具有成本效益，应给予较低优先级。考虑到成本高昂，推广生物燃料的措施应作为最不优先实施的措施。此外，液化天然气（LNG）应用措施具有良好的成本效益，但碳排放减排潜力有限。它只能用作能源转型的过渡燃料。研究结果和研究方法将为粤港澳大湾区及其他地区交通运输能源转型路径的制定提供理论支持。
