Xu Mengke, Liao Cuiping, Huang Ying, Gao Xiaoquan, Dong Genglin, Liu Zhen
School of Energy Science and Engineering, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, Anhui, China.
Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510640, Guangdong, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Mar 28;14(1):7405. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-57703-w.
As a major carbon emitter, the power sector plays a crucial role in realizing the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. This study constructed a low-carbon power system based on the LEAP model (LEAP-GBA) with 2020 as a statistic base aiming of exploring the low-carbon transformation pathway of the power sector in the Guangdong-Hong Kong, and Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Five scenarios are set up to simulate the demand, power generation structure, carbon emissions, and power generation costs in the power sector under different scenarios. The results indicate that total electricity demand will peak after 2050, with 80% of it coming from industry, buildings and residential use. To achieve net-zero emissions from the power sector in the GBA, a future power generation mix dominated by nuclear and renewable energy generation and supplemented by fossil energy generation equipped with CCUS technologies. BECCS technology and nuclear power are the key to realize zero carbon emissions from the power sector in the GBA, so it should be the first to promote BECCS technology testing and commercial application, improve the deployment of nuclear power sites, and push forward the construction of nuclear power and technology improvement in the next 40 years.
作为主要的碳排放源，电力部门在实现碳达峰和碳中和目标方面发挥着关键作用。本研究基于LEAP模型构建了一个以2020年为统计基准的低碳电力系统（LEAP-GBA），旨在探索粤港澳大湾区电力部门的低碳转型路径。设定了五种情景来模拟不同情景下电力部门的需求、发电结构、碳排放和发电成本。结果表明，总电力需求将在2050年后达到峰值，其中80%来自工业、建筑和居民用电。为实现大湾区电力部门的净零排放，未来发电组合应以核能和可再生能源发电为主，辅以配备CCUS技术的化石能源发电。BECCS技术和核电是实现大湾区电力部门零碳排放的关键，因此应率先推动BECCS技术测试和商业应用，完善核电站点布局，并在未来40年内推进核电建设和技术改进。
