Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
Occupational Health and Safety Research Center, Health Science & Technology Research Institute, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
BMC Nephrol. 2024 Sep 2;25(1):286. doi: 10.1186/s12882-024-03720-w.
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an important public health problem worldwide; therefore, forecasting CKD mortality rates and death numbers globally is vital for planning CKD prevention programs. This study aimed to characterize the temporal trends in CKD mortality at the international level from 1990 to 2019 and predict CKD mortality rates and numbers until 2030.
Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study. A joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percentage change in CKD mortality rates and numbers. Finally, we used a generalized additive model to predict CKD mortality through 2030.
The number of CKD-related deaths worldwide increased from 591.80 thousand in 1990 to 1425.67 thousand in 2019. The CKD age-adjusted mortality rate increased from 15.95 per 100,000 people to 18.35 per 100,000 people during the same period. Between 2020 and 2030, the number of CKD deaths is forecasted to increase further to 1812.85 thousand by 2030. The CKD age-adjusted mortality rate is expected to decrease slightly to 17.76 per 100,000 people (95% credible interval (CrI): 13.84 to 21.68). Globally, it is predicted that in the next decade, the CKD mortality rate will decrease in men, women, all subgroups of disease etiology except glomerulonephritis, people younger than 40 years old, and all groupings of countries based on the sociodemographic index (SDI) except high-middle-SDI countries.
The CKD mortality rate is predicted to decrease in the next decade. However, more attention should be given to people with glomerulonephritis, people over 40 years old, and people in high- to middle-income countries because the mortality rate due to CKD in these subgroups is expected to increase until 2030.
慢性肾脏病（CKD）是全球一个重要的公共卫生问题；因此，预测全球 CKD 死亡率和死亡人数对于规划 CKD 预防计划至关重要。本研究旨在描述 1990 年至 2019 年国际 CKD 死亡率的时间趋势，并预测 2030 年 CKD 死亡率和死亡人数。
数据来自 2019 年全球疾病负担研究。使用 Joinpoint 回归模型估计 CKD 死亡率和死亡人数的年均变化百分比。最后，我们使用广义加性模型预测 2030 年之前的 CKD 死亡率。
全球 CKD 相关死亡人数从 1990 年的 59.18 万增加到 2019 年的 1425.67 万。同期，CKD 年龄标准化死亡率从每 10 万人 15.95 人增加到每 10 万人 18.35 人。预计 2020 年至 2030 年，CKD 死亡人数将进一步增加到 2030 年的 1812.85 万。CKD 年龄标准化死亡率预计将略有下降至每 10 万人 17.76 人（95%可信区间[CrI]：13.84 至 21.68）。在全球范围内，预计在未来十年内，CKD 死亡率将在男性、女性、除肾小球肾炎以外的所有疾病病因亚组、40 岁以下人群以及社会人口指数（SDI）分组的所有国家中下降，除高-中-SDI 国家以外。
预计未来十年 CKD 死亡率将下降。然而，应更加关注肾小球肾炎患者、40 岁以上人群以及中高收入国家的人群，因为这些亚组的 CKD 死亡率预计将在 2030 年之前增加。
