College of Forestry, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming, 650224, China.
Jiangcheng County Forestry and Grassland Bureau, Pu'er, 665900, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Sep 4;14(1):20580. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-69897-0.
Ceracris kiangsu (Orthoptera: Arcypteridae), is greatly affected by climatic factors and exhibits strong adaptability, posing a serious threat to the ecological environment. Therefore, predicting its potential suitable habitat distribution provides a proactive theoretical basis for pest control. This study using the Biomod2 package of R simulated and predicted the current and future potential distribution, area changes, changes in the center points of suitable habitats, and niche shifts of C. kiangsu under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, SSP1-26 and SSP5-85. The results show that: (1) Currently, the high suitability areas for C. kiangsu are mainly distributed in Yunnan, Jiangxi, Hunan provinces in southern China and phongsaly province in northern Laos. In the future, the center of the suitable habitat distribution pattern of C. kiangsu will remain unchanged, primarily expanding outward from medium and high suitability areas. Additionally, significant suitable habitats for C. kiangsu were discovered in Southeast Asian countries without previous pest records. (2) Compared to the present, the overall suitable habitat area for C. kiangsu is expected to expand, particularly under the SSP5-85 climate change scenario. (3) In the SSP1-26 and SSP5-85 climate scenarios, the geometric center of the suitable habitat generally shows a trend of gradually shifting northeast. (4) Under different climate scenarios, the suitable habitat of C. kiangsu has highly overlapping, indicating that the suitable habitat of C. kiangsu in the invaded areas is broader than in its native regions. In conclusion, the research findings represent a breakthrough in identifying the potential distribution areas of C. kiangsu, which is of great practical significance for the monitoring and control of C. kiangsu pest infestation in China and Southeast Asian countries.
直翅目（Orthoptera）稻蝗科（Arcypteridae）的中华稻蝗（Ceracris kiangsu）受气候因素影响较大，具有较强的适应性，对生态环境构成严重威胁。因此，预测其潜在适宜栖息地分布可为害虫防治提供积极的理论依据。本研究使用 R 中的 Biomod2 包模拟和预测了中华稻蝗目前和未来的潜在分布、面积变化、适宜栖息地中心点的变化以及在两种不同温室气体排放情景（SSP1-26 和 SSP5-85）下的生态位转移。结果表明：（1）目前，中华稻蝗高适宜区主要分布在中国南部的云南、江西、湖南和北部老挝的丰沙里省。未来，中华稻蝗适宜栖息地分布模式的中心将保持不变，主要从中高适宜区向外扩展。此外，还在以前没有害虫记录的东南亚国家发现了中华稻蝗的重要适宜栖息地。（2）与现在相比，中华稻蝗的整体适宜栖息地面积预计将扩大，特别是在 SSP5-85 气候变化情景下。（3）在 SSP1-26 和 SSP5-85 气候情景下，适宜栖息地的几何中心通常呈逐渐向东北方向移动的趋势。（4）在不同气候情景下，中华稻蝗的适宜栖息地高度重叠，表明中华稻蝗在入侵地区的适宜栖息地比在其原生地区更广泛。总之，该研究结果代表了识别中华稻蝗潜在分布区的突破，对中国和东南亚国家监测和控制中华稻蝗虫害具有重要的现实意义。
