Institute of Resource Plants, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China.
Flower Research Institute, Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Kunming 650205, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2024 Jul 18;35(7):1897-1906. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202407.022.
, originated from East Asia, is one of the original ancestors of modern roses. It is also an important genetic resource and rootstock for rose cultivation. Due to its high resistance and vigorous growth, has become an invasive species in some introduction sites, such as North America. To explore the correlation between the suitable habitat of and climate change, we predicted its potential geographic distribution with an optimized MaxEnt model based on 1246 distribution records and nine bioclimatic variables. The results showed that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, minimum temperature of the coldest month, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and isothermality were significant bioclimatic variables affecting the potential geographic distribution of Under current climate conditions, naturally distributed in the plains and hilly areas to the east and south of the Loess Plateau. The distribution pattern in the mid-holocene was similar to its current distribution, but the highly suitable distribution area was in the south of North China Plain, the Sichuan Basin, and parts of the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain. During the last interglacial, the suitable areas generally contrac-ted southward, while the highly suitable areas significantly expanded and mainly located in the Sichuan Basin, the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plains, the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and the Southeast Hills. Beyond its natural distribution in East Asia, had been introduced and spread to most parts of Europe and the central and eastern United States. The distribution area of would expand under three warming scenarios of different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) during 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. Its average distribution center (centroid) would shift towards higher latitude, indicating that the distribution of was closely related to climate change and that global warming might lead to an expansion of its distribution area. These results would improve our understanding of the ecological adaptability of , facilitate the predicting of its future distribution, and provide a theoretical basis for monitoring and early warning measures following its introduction.
原产于东亚的，是现代玫瑰的原始祖先之一。它也是玫瑰栽培的重要遗传资源和砧木。由于其高抗性和旺盛的生长，已成为一些引种地（如北美洲）的入侵物种。为了探讨与 适宜栖息地相关的气候变化，我们基于 1246 个分布记录和 9 个生物气候变量，利用优化的最大熵模型预测了其潜在的地理分布。结果表明，最冷月平均温度、最冷月最低温度、温暖季度降水量和等温性是影响 潜在地理分布的显著生物气候变量。在当前气候条件下，自然分布于黄土高原东部和南部的平原和丘陵地区。中全新世的分布格局与当前分布相似，但高适宜分布区位于华北平原南部、四川盆地和部分长江中下游平原。末次间冰期，适宜区普遍向南收缩，而高适宜区显著扩大，主要位于四川盆地、长江中下游平原、云贵高原和东南丘陵。除了在东亚的自然分布外，还被引入并传播到欧洲大部分地区和美国中东部。在不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5）下，2041-2060 年和 2081-2100 年期间， 分布区将扩大。其平均分布中心（质心）将向更高纬度移动，这表明 分布与气候变化密切相关，全球变暖可能导致其分布区扩大。这些结果将提高我们对 的生态适应性的认识，有助于预测其未来的分布，并为其引种后的监测和预警措施提供理论依据。
