BACKGROUND

The influence of hemodynamic parameters on the recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) after catheter ablation is not well known, and it remains unclear whether a nomogram combining risk factors and hemodynamic parameters improves prediction accuracy.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop a nomogram on the basis of echocardiographic hemodynamic parameters for predicting AF recurrence after catheter ablation in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF).

METHODS

A total of 380 consecutive patients with NVAF undergoing AF catheter ablation treatment were prospectively included. Patients were divided into training and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio. The follow-up time averaged 9 months with a median of 12 months, during which 132 patients (34.7%) experienced AF recurrence.

RESULTS

Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and Cox regression analyses identified 4 significant predictors of AF recurrence: persistent AF (hazard ratio [HR] 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-2.61; P = .041), S/D ratio of pulmonary vein (HR 0.50; 95% CI 0.30-0.84; P = .009), left atrial acceleration factor α (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.02-1.68; P = .032), and left atrial appendage peak emptying flow velocity (HR 0.98; 95% CI 0.97-0.99; P = .004). On the basis of these 4 variables, a predictive nomogram was constructed. The nomogram demonstrated C indices of 0.664 and 0.728 for predicting 1- and 2-year AF recurrence, respectively, in the validation cohort. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicated that a Nomo score of >128 was associated with a higher risk of AF recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Hemodynamic parameters may offer valuable insight into predicting AF recurrence after catheter ablation. Our study successfully developed a reliable nomogram on the basis of echocardiographic hemodynamic parameters to estimate the risk of AF recurrence after catheter ablation in patients with NVAF.