UMR Prodig, CNRS, 93222, Aubervilliers, France.
Departamento de Ingeniería Civil y Ambiental, Universidad de Los Andes, 111711, Bogotá, Colombia.
Environ Monit Assess. 2024 Sep 6;196(10):900. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-13052-9.
Previous studies conducted in the municipality of Sibaté (Colombia) have revealed alarming findings regarding asbestos exposure in the region, as it is the site of the country's first mesothelioma cluster. Non-occupational asbestos exposure events were identified in this population, and the young age of the mesothelioma cases at the time of diagnosis suggests that asbestos exposure occurred during their childhood. The creation of landfilled zones in the 1980s and 1990s, utilizing friable asbestos among other disposed materials, may have been a significant asbestos exposure event contributing to the elevated number of mesothelioma cases. The objective of this study was to model various historical exposure scenarios related to the creation and interaction of the population with asbestos-contaminated landfilled zones, in light of the absence of asbestos monitoring in the region. The models utilized a multi-agent simulation process, focusing on a 10-year period (1986-1995). Various relevant variables were incorporated into the modeling process, including, for example, the number of children playing in the landfilled zones and the percentage of children carrying asbestos fibers on their clothes to their homes. A range of values for input data for the models were utilized, spanning from very conservative numbers to exposure-promoting values. The average number of exposed individuals estimated over 750 simulation runs, considering all scenarios, was 571, with a range between 31 and 3800 exposed individuals. The use of multi-agent simulation models can assist the understanding of past asbestos exposure events, especially when there is a lack of environmental surveillance data.
先前在哥伦比亚锡巴特市（Sibaté）进行的研究揭示了该地区令人震惊的石棉暴露情况，因为这里是该国首例间皮瘤集群的所在地。在该人群中发现了非职业性石棉暴露事件，而且间皮瘤病例的诊断年龄较轻，这表明石棉暴露发生在他们的童年时期。20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代创建了填埋区，利用易碎石棉和其他处置材料，这可能是一个重要的石棉暴露事件，导致间皮瘤病例增多。本研究的目的是模拟与创建和人群与受石棉污染的填埋区相互作用有关的各种历史暴露情景，鉴于该地区没有进行石棉监测。该模型使用多主体模拟过程，重点关注 10 年期间（1986-1995 年）。将各种相关变量纳入建模过程中，例如，在填埋区玩耍的儿童人数以及将石棉纤维带到家中的儿童的百分比。模型的输入数据使用了一系列值，范围从非常保守的数字到促进暴露的数值。考虑到所有情景，在 750 多次模拟运行中估计的暴露个体平均数量为 571，范围在 31 到 3800 之间。当缺乏环境监测数据时，多主体模拟模型可以帮助理解过去的石棉暴露事件。
