Zhou Quan, Di Nunno Fabio, Sun Jiang, Sojka Mariusz, Ptak Mariusz, Qian Yun, Zhu Senlin, Granata Francesco
College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China.
Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering (DICEM), University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Via Di Biasio, 43, 03043, Cassino, Frosinone, Italy.
Heliyon. 2024 Aug 13;10(16):e35987. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e35987. eCollection 2024 Aug 30.
Rivers worldwide are warming due to the impact of climate change and human interventions. This study investigated river heatwaves in the Vistula River Basin, one of the largest river systems in Europe using long-term observed daily river water temperatures from the past 30 years (1991-2020). The results showed that river heatwaves are increased in frequency and intensity in the Vistula River Basin. The total number of river heatwaves showed clear increasing trend with an average rate of 1.400 times/decade, the duration of river heatwaves increased at an average rate of 14.506 days/decade, and the cumulative intensity of river heatwaves increased at an average rate of 53.169 °C/decade. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test was also employed, showing statistically significant increasing trends in the total number, duration, and intensity of heatwaves for all rivers, including the main watercourse of the Vistula River and its tributaries, with few exceptions. Air temperature is the major controller of river heatwaves for each hydrological station, and with the increase of air temperatures, river heatwaves will increase in frequency and intensity. Another impacting factor is flow, and with the increase of flow, river heatwaves tend to decrease in number, duration and intensity. The results suggested that mitigation measures shall be taken to reduce the effect of climate change on river systems.
由于气候变化和人类活动的影响，全球河流正在变暖。本研究利用过去30年（1991 - 2020年）长期观测的每日河流水温，调查了欧洲最大的河流系统之一维斯瓦河流域的河流热浪情况。结果表明，维斯瓦河流域河流热浪的频率和强度都在增加。河流热浪的总数呈明显上升趋势，平均增长率为1.400次/十年，河流热浪的持续时间以平均14.506天/十年的速度增加，河流热浪的累积强度以平均53.169℃/十年的速度增加。还采用了曼 - 肯德尔（MK）检验，结果表明，除少数例外情况外，包括维斯瓦河主河道及其支流在内的所有河流，热浪的总数、持续时间和强度在统计上均呈现显著的上升趋势。气温是每个水文站河流热浪的主要控制因素，随着气温升高，河流热浪的频率和强度将会增加。另一个影响因素是流量，随着流量增加，河流热浪的数量、持续时间和强度往往会减少。结果表明，应采取缓解措施以减少气候变化对河流系统的影响。
