Zheng Xiaoqi, Wang Jiaying, Xu Xiangbo, Yu Ran, Zhang Sheng
School of Economics, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, No.9, Wenyuan Road, Nanjing, 210023, China.
Institute of Geographical Science and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Aug 14;10(16):e36312. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e36312. eCollection 2024 Aug 30.
Analysing the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions may help China to determine how to reduce carbon emissions. This study examined 221 Chinese prefecture-level cities using data from 2003 to 2018 to investigate the possible inverted U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, based on per capita nighttime light brightness. This revealed a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita nighttime and carbon emissions with a per capita GDP of 139.8 thousand Yuan corresponding to the turning point. For China to achieve its carbon emissions peak before 2030, the per capita GDP growth rate would need to be at least 6.6 %. Therefore, for help prefecture-level cities to achieve peak carbon, they must strive towards high-quality economic growth and accelerate transformation of economic growth modes to improve low-carbon pilot policies, and such projects should be implemented in more cities. Efforts to achieve peak should be accelerated first in eastern cities and later in western cities.
分析经济增长与碳排放之间的关系可能有助于中国确定如何减少碳排放。本研究利用2003年至2018年的数据，以人均夜间灯光亮度为基础，对221个中国地级市进行了考察，以探究碳排放与经济增长之间可能存在的倒U型关系。这揭示了人均夜间灯光亮度与碳排放之间存在显著的倒U型关系，转折点对应的人均GDP为13.98万元。为使中国在2030年前实现碳排放峰值，人均GDP增长率至少需要达到6.6%。因此，为帮助地级市实现碳峰值，它们必须努力实现高质量经济增长，加快经济增长方式转变，完善低碳试点政策，并且此类项目应在更多城市实施。应首先加快东部城市的达峰努力，随后是西部城市。
