School of Economics, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing, 210023, China.
National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing, 100035, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 May;30(24):66328-66345. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-27097-9. Epub 2023 Apr 25.
The prevalence of global unilateralism and the shock of COVID-19 brought considerable uncertainty to China's economic development. Consequently, policy selection related to the economy, industry, and technology is expected to significantly impact China's national economic potential and carbon emission mitigation. This study used a bottom-up energy model to assess the future energy consumption and CO emission trend before 2035 under three scenarios: a high-investment scenario (HIS), a medium-growth scenario (MGS), and an innovation-driven scenario (IDS). These were also used to predict the energy consumption and CO emission trend for the final sectors and calculate each sector's mitigation contribution. The main findings were as follows. Firstly, under HIS, China would achieve its carbon peak in 2030, with 12.0 Gt CO. Moderately lowering the economic growth rate to support the low-carbon transition of the economy by boosting the development of the low-carbon industry and speeding up the employment of key low-carbon technologies to improve energy efficiency and optimize energy structure in the final sectors, the MGS and the IDS would achieve carbon peak approximately in 2025, with a peak of 10.7 Gt CO for the MGS and 10.0 Gt CO for the IDS. Several policy recommendations were proposed to meet China's nationally determined contribution targets: instigating more active development goals for each sector to implement the "1+N" policy system, taking measures to accelerate the R&D, boosting the innovation and application of key low-carbon technologies, strengthening economic incentives, forming an endogenous driving force for market-oriented emission reduction, and assessing the climate impacts of new infrastructure projects.
全球单边主义盛行，新冠肺炎疫情冲击，给中国经济发展带来较大不确定性。因此，经济、产业、技术等领域的政策选择，预计将对中国经济发展潜力和碳减排产生重大影响。本研究采用自下而上的能源模型，在三种情景下（高投资情景 HIS、中速增长情景 MGS 和创新驱动情景 IDS），对 2035 年前中国未来的能源消费和 CO 排放趋势进行了评估。同时预测最终部门的能源消费和 CO 排放趋势，并计算各部门的减排贡献。主要结果如下：首先，在 HIS 情景下，中国将在 2030 年实现碳达峰，CO 排放量为 12.0 亿吨。适度降低经济增长率，通过发展低碳产业，加快关键低碳技术的应用，提高能源效率，优化最终部门能源结构，支持经济低碳转型，MGS 和 IDS 情景将在 2025 年左右实现碳达峰，CO 排放量分别为 10.7 亿吨和 10.0 亿吨。为实现中国国家自主贡献目标，提出了若干政策建议：推动各部门更加积极地制定发展目标，落实“1+N”政策体系；采取措施加快研发，推动关键低碳技术创新应用；强化经济激励；形成市场减排的内生动力；评估新基础设施项目的气候影响。
