Wang Shuang, Wang Yan, Lai Chengshou
College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, China.
CSSC Systems Engineering Research Institute, Beijing, 100094, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Aug 14;10(16):e36295. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e36295. eCollection 2024 Aug 30.
The connectivity reliability of strait and canal nodes in seaborne crude oil networks is uncertain because of various risk factors. Existing studies have mainly focused on road networks and often ignored real-world factors by assuming fixed and identical values for the connectivity reliability of each node, leading to inaccurate estimations. Few studies have considered node reliability when identifying the most reliable routes for oil shipments in response to various external and changing risks. To address these limitations, we first establish new connectivity reliability evaluation methods for both nodes and networks. Then, we develop the α-most reliable shipping route and the very most reliable shipping route models using uncertain programming to dynamically identify the most reliable routes for crude oil, ensuring timely and safe transportation. We apply these models to China's seaborne network of imported crude oil. The results show a network connectivity reliability of 0.6228, which is impacted by unreliable origin-destination pairs in the Middle East. The risk values of the most reliable oil shipping routes vary regionally, with higher values in Africa and the Middle East than in Asia and Latin America. As node risk increases, regional disparities also increase. These findings will aid in the development of energy transportation and import strategies to enhance transportation reliability.
由于存在各种风险因素，海上原油网络中海峡和运河节点的连通可靠性具有不确定性。现有研究主要集中在道路网络上，并且常常通过假设每个节点的连通可靠性为固定且相同的值而忽略现实世界中的因素，从而导致估计不准确。在确定应对各种外部和不断变化的风险的最可靠石油运输路线时，很少有研究考虑节点可靠性。为了解决这些局限性，我们首先建立了针对节点和网络的新连通可靠性评估方法。然后，我们使用不确定规划开发了α-最可靠运输路线和绝对最可靠运输路线模型，以动态确定原油的最可靠路线，确保运输及时且安全。我们将这些模型应用于中国进口原油的海上网络。结果表明，网络连通可靠性为0.6228，这受到中东地区不可靠的起止点对的影响。最可靠石油运输路线的风险值因地区而异，非洲和中东地区的值高于亚洲和拉丁美洲。随着节点风险增加，地区差异也会增加。这些发现将有助于制定能源运输和进口战略，以提高运输可靠性。
