National Meteorological Center, 46 Zhongguancun South St., Beijing, 100081, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Sep 11;14(1):21245. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-71228-2.
The relationship between climate conditions and pest life is a key determinant of their distribution. Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee, a major rice pest, exhibits outbreaks and its distribution patterns closely linked to meteorological factors. By using 244 actual distribution and occurrence data of C. medinalis along with 8 bioclimatic data, and employing the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS, combined with the latest SSPs climate scenario data, this study evaluated the risk region distribution status in the current period and predicted changes in China from 2040 to 2100. The results indicate that an overall increase in the risk area for C. medinalis, particularly under SSP245 scenario during 2040-2060. While Low-risk areas are expected to decrease, Medium and High-risk areas are projected to increase significantly, with worsening pest infestations anticipated in southern Hubei, eastern Hunan, most of Jiangxi, central Fujian, northern Guangdong, and southern Jiangsu. Regions such as central Liaoning are expected to reach the minimum survival standard for C. medinalis in future, leading to the northward shift in risk areas. Difference plots highlighted areas of increased and decreased suitability, providing actionable insights for policymakers. Regions with increased suitability align with the predicted northward shift of many agricultural pests, necessitating enhanced monitoring, specific pest control measures, and updated agricultural policies to address changing risk profiles. Additionally, the centroid analysis showed a northwest shift direction in future, primarily located at the junction of Shaoyang City and Loudi City, situated around 27-28 °N degrees north latitude and 111-113 °E. The study underscores the significant impact of climate change on the distribution of rice leaf roller, providing valuable insights for agricultural planning and management. The northward and westward expansion of risk areas necessitates adaptive strategies to mitigate potential impacts on agriculture. Enhanced monitoring, integrated pest management, and the development of pest-resistant crops are essential for addressing future challenges posed by climate change.
气候条件与害虫生活史之间的关系是决定其分布的关键因素。二化螟，一种主要的水稻害虫，其爆发和分布模式与气象因素密切相关。本研究利用 244 个二化螟实际分布和发生数据，结合 8 个生物气候数据，采用 MaxEnt 模型和 ArcGIS，并结合最新的 SSPs 气候情景数据，评估了当前时期的风险区域分布状况，并预测了 2040 年至 2100 年中国的变化。结果表明，二化螟的风险区域总体呈增加趋势，尤其是在 SSP245 情景下，2040-2060 年期间增加更为明显。低风险区域预计会减少，而中高风险区域预计会显著增加，预计在湖北南部、湖南东部、江西大部分地区、福建中部、广东北部和江苏南部的虫害情况会恶化。辽宁中部等地区预计在未来将达到二化螟的最低生存标准，导致风险区域向北转移。差异图突出显示了适宜性增加和减少的区域，为决策者提供了可行的见解。适宜性增加的区域与许多农业害虫预测的北移相吻合，需要加强监测、采取特定的害虫防治措施，并更新农业政策，以应对不断变化的风险状况。此外，中心分析显示未来有向西北方向转移的趋势，主要位于邵阳市和娄底市交界处，大约在 27-28°N 度的北纬和 111-113°E 的经线上。该研究强调了气候变化对水稻卷叶螟分布的重大影响，为农业规划和管理提供了有价值的见解。风险区域的向北和向西扩展需要采取适应性策略来减轻对农业的潜在影响。加强监测、综合虫害管理和开发抗虫作物是应对气候变化带来的未来挑战的关键。
