Zhang Jinkai, Huang Song, Li Jiaxiang, Liao Lingjuan, Jiang Xiaolong, Xu Yongfu, Yu Xunlin, Wu Lei, Zhao Lijuan, Fu Jin, Yang Yun, Chen Chunhua
College of Forestry, Central South University of Forestry and Technology Changsha Hunan China.
The Forestry Department of Hunan Province Changsha Hunan China.
Ecol Evol. 2024 Sep 11;14(9):e70300. doi: 10.1002/ece3.70300. eCollection 2024 Sep.
Understanding the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of species is a fundamental requirement for biodiversity conservation and resource management. , an evergreen oak endemic to China, plays a crucial role in maintaining the ecological stability in subtropical regions and high economic value attributed to its dark and high-density heartwood, but the existing resources are close to endangered. Currently, limited knowledge exists regarding its distribution and potential influences of climate change on suitable areas. This study utilized 63 occurrence records and Biomod2 platform, to predict changes in suitable areas for under future climate change. The results revealed that (1) showed a pattern of three disjunctive geographical centers in the eastern subregion of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest region (IV): Qinling-Daba Mountains, Nanling Mountains and Wuyi Mountains center. Currently, the highly suitable areas concentrated in two zones divided by the Yangtze River, that is, the northern subtropical evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved forest zone (IV) and the mid-subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest zone (IV). (2) The temperature-related variables, such as annual temperature range (Bio7), the mean diurnal range (Bio2), and annual mean temperature (Bio1), were identified as the key determinants of the distribution pattern. Because of its considerable climatic variations in temperature and water conditions, 's habitat displayed a wider climate niche and strong physiological tolerance to climate change. (3) Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of the species was expected to overall expand with significant regional differences. The suitable area in IV was expected to expand significantly northward while that in IV was expected to gradually shrink. To address the impact of climate change, it is necessary to develop conservation plans focused around the three distribution centers, implement localized and regional conservation policies, and conduct educational outreach among local people.
了解气候变化对物种地理分布的影响是生物多样性保护和资源管理的一项基本要求。栓皮栎是中国特有的常绿栎类，在维持亚热带地区的生态稳定方面发挥着关键作用，其深色高密度的心材具有很高的经济价值，但现有资源已濒临濒危。目前，关于其分布以及气候变化对适宜区域的潜在影响的了解有限。本研究利用63个出现记录和Biomod2平台，预测栓皮栎在未来气候变化下适宜区域的变化。结果表明：（1）栓皮栎在亚热带常绿阔叶林区域（IV）东部次区域呈现出三个间断地理中心的格局：秦岭-大巴山、南岭和武夷山中心。目前，高度适宜区域集中在长江划分的两个地带，即北亚热带常绿落叶阔叶混交林地带（IV）和中亚热带常绿阔叶林地带（IV）。（2）与温度相关的变量，如年温度范围（Bio7）、平均昼夜温差（Bio2）和年平均温度（Bio1），被确定为分布格局的关键决定因素。由于其在温度和水分条件方面存在显著的气候差异，栓皮栎的栖息地显示出更宽的气候生态位和对气候变化较强的生理耐受性。（3）在未来气候情景下，该物种的适宜区域预计总体上会扩大，但存在显著的区域差异。IV区域的适宜面积预计将大幅向北扩展，而IV区域的适宜面积预计将逐渐缩小。为应对气候变化的影响，有必要围绕三个分布中心制定保护计划，实施本地化和区域化的保护政策，并在当地居民中开展宣传教育。
