Ren Zhe, Peng Hua, Liu Zhen-Wen
Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650201, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Plant Divers. 2016 Jun 15;38(3):142-148. doi: 10.1016/j.pld.2016.04.003. eCollection 2016 Jun.
Yunnan's biodiversity is under considerable pressure and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in this area have become increasingly fragmented through agriculture, logging, planting of economic plants, mining activities and changing environment. The aims of the study are to investigate climate change-induced changes of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in Yunnan and identify areas of current species richness centers for conservation preparation. Stacked species distribution models were created to generate ensemble forecasting of species distributions, alpha diversity and beta diversity for Yunnan's subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in both current and future climate scenarios. Under stacked species distribution models in rapid climate changes scenarios, changes of water-energy dynamics may possibly reduce beta diversity and increase alpha diversity. This point provides insight for future conservation of evergreen broad-leaved forest in Yunnan, highlighting the need to fully consider the problem of vegetation homogenization caused by transformation of water-energy dynamics.
云南的生物多样性面临着巨大压力，该地区的亚热带常绿阔叶林因农业、伐木、经济作物种植、采矿活动和环境变化而日益碎片化。本研究的目的是调查气候变化引起的云南亚热带常绿阔叶林的变化，并确定当前物种丰富度中心区域，为保护工作做准备。构建了叠加物种分布模型，以对云南亚热带常绿阔叶林在当前和未来气候情景下的物种分布、α多样性和β多样性进行综合预测。在快速气候变化情景下的叠加物种分布模型中，水 - 能量动态变化可能会降低β多样性并增加α多样性。这一点为云南常绿阔叶林未来的保护工作提供了思路，突出了充分考虑由水 - 能量动态变化导致的植被同质化问题的必要性。
