Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom.
Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom.
Public Health. 2024 Nov;236:207-215. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.07.029. Epub 2024 Sep 12.
Since COVID-19 first emerged in 2019, mathematical models have been developed to predict transmission and provide insight into disease control strategies. A key research need now is for models to inform long-term vaccination policy. We aimed to review the early modelling methods utilised during the pandemic period (2019-2023) in order to identify gaps in the literature and highlight areas for future model development.
This study was a systematic review.
We searched PubMed, Embase and Scopus from 1 January 2019 to 6 February 2023 for peer-reviewed, English-language articles describing age-structured, dynamic, mathematical models of COVID-19 transmission and vaccination in high-income countries that include waning immunity or reinfection. We extracted details of the structure, features and approach of each model and combined them in a narrative synthesis.
Of the 1109 articles screened, 47 were included. Most studies used deterministic, compartmental models set in Europe or North America that simulated a time horizon of 3.5 years or less. Common outcomes included cases, hospital utilisation and deaths. Only nine models included long COVID, costs, life years or quality of life-related measures. Two studies explored the potential impact of new variants beyond Omicron.
This review demonstrates a need for long-term models that focus on outcome measures such as quality-adjusted life years, the population-level effects of long COVID and the cost effectiveness of future policies - all of which are essential considerations in the planning of long-term vaccination strategies.
自 2019 年 COVID-19 首次出现以来，已经开发出数学模型来预测传播情况，并深入了解疾病控制策略。现在的一个关键研究需求是让模型为长期疫苗接种政策提供信息。我们旨在回顾大流行期间（2019-2023 年）使用的早期建模方法，以确定文献中的差距，并强调未来模型开发的领域。
本研究是一项系统评价。
我们从 2019 年 1 月 1 日至 2023 年 2 月 6 日在 PubMed、Embase 和 Scopus 上搜索了描述高收入国家 COVID-19 传播和疫苗接种的年龄结构、动态、数学模型的同行评审英文文章，这些模型包括免疫减弱或再感染。我们提取了每个模型的结构、特征和方法的详细信息，并将其结合在一个叙述性综述中。
在筛选的 1109 篇文章中，有 47 篇被纳入。大多数研究使用确定性、隔室模型，设定在欧洲或北美，模拟时间范围不超过 3.5 年。常见的结果包括病例、医院利用和死亡。只有 9 个模型包括长 COVID、成本、生命年或与生活质量相关的措施。有两项研究探讨了奥密克戎以外的新变体的潜在影响。
本综述表明需要长期模型，重点关注质量调整生命年等结果衡量标准、长 COVID 对人群的影响以及未来政策的成本效益，所有这些都是长期疫苗接种策略规划的重要考虑因素。
