Kang Jaedo, Kang Taewook, Lee Kihak, Kim Hyewon, Shin Jiuk
Division of Safety and Infrastructure Research, The Seoul Institute, Seoul, 03909, South Korea.
Department of Architectural Engineering, Gyeongsang National University (GNU), Jinju-Daero, Jinju-si, Gyeongsangnam-do, 52828, South Korea.
Sci Rep. 2024 Sep 14;14(1):21492. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-72363-6.
After the occurrences of large-scale earthquakes, secondary damage (e.g., fire following earthquake) can result in tremendous losses of life, properties, and buildings. To reduce these disaster risks, fire following earthquake assessment methods composed of ignition and fire-burned rate estimation models have been utilized. However, previous methods required for large amounts of building and GIS information, and complex modeling and analysis processes, leading to significant time consumption. This paper proposed a static analysis-based rapid fire following earthquake assessment method using simple information and implemented it in Pohang City, South Korea. Based on previous studies, the best-fit model for the ignition rate estimation was selected, and a cluster-based fire-burned rate estimation model was developed using simple building information (e.g., construction year, building occupancy, story, and total floor area) from the public building database (e.g., building registration data). For the fire-burned rate estimation model, fire-resistant structure types were defined using simple building information, and this was utilized to generate clusters of buildings at a regional level by comparing fire-spread distances for each fire-resistant structure type with adjacent distances among the buildings. This proposed method was applied to Pohang City, South Korea, and validated as follows: (1) the selected ignition rate model predicted similar ignition numbers to the actual reported number (actual number of ignitions = 4 vs. predicted number of ignitions = 3), and (2) the fire-burned rate model estimated fire-burned areas with a marginal difference compared to the fire spread simulation (fire-burned area using the proposed model = 13,703.6 m vs. results of fire spread simulation = 16,800.0 m, with an error of approximately 18%).
大规模地震发生后，次生灾害（如地震引发的火灾）会导致生命、财产和建筑物的巨大损失。为降低这些灾害风险，已采用了由起火和火灾燃烧率估算模型组成的地震后火灾评估方法。然而，以往的方法需要大量的建筑和地理信息系统信息，以及复杂的建模和分析过程，导致耗时较长。本文提出了一种基于静态分析的、利用简单信息的地震后火灾快速评估方法，并在韩国浦项市实施。基于以往的研究，选择了用于起火率估算的最佳拟合模型，并利用公共建筑数据库（如建筑登记数据）中的简单建筑信息（如建造年份、建筑用途、层数和总建筑面积）开发了基于聚类的火灾燃烧率估算模型。对于火灾燃烧率估算模型，利用简单建筑信息定义耐火结构类型，并通过比较每种耐火结构类型的火灾蔓延距离与建筑物之间的相邻距离，在区域层面生成建筑物聚类。将该方法应用于韩国浦项市，并进行了如下验证：（1）所选的起火率模型预测的起火数量与实际报告数量相似（实际起火数量=4，预测起火数量=3）；（2）火灾燃烧率模型估算的火灾燃烧面积与火灾蔓延模拟结果相比，差异较小（使用该模型的火灾燃烧面积=13703.6平方米，火灾蔓延模拟结果=16800.0平方米，误差约为18%）。
