Nakagawa Shinichi, Yang Yefeng, Macartney Erin L, Spake Rebecca, Lagisz Malgorzata
Evolution & Ecology Research Centre and School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.
Theoretical Sciences Visiting Program, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, Onna, 904-0495, Japan.
Environ Evid. 2023 Apr 24;12(1):8. doi: 10.1186/s13750-023-00301-6.
Meta-analysis is a quantitative way of synthesizing results from multiple studies to obtain reliable evidence of an intervention or phenomenon. Indeed, an increasing number of meta-analyses are conducted in environmental sciences, and resulting meta-analytic evidence is often used in environmental policies and decision-making. We conducted a survey of recent meta-analyses in environmental sciences and found poor standards of current meta-analytic practice and reporting. For example, only ~ 40% of the 73 reviewed meta-analyses reported heterogeneity (variation among effect sizes beyond sampling error), and publication bias was assessed in fewer than half. Furthermore, although almost all the meta-analyses had multiple effect sizes originating from the same studies, non-independence among effect sizes was considered in only half of the meta-analyses. To improve the implementation of meta-analysis in environmental sciences, we here outline practical guidance for conducting a meta-analysis in environmental sciences. We describe the key concepts of effect size and meta-analysis and detail procedures for fitting multilevel meta-analysis and meta-regression models and performing associated publication bias tests. We demonstrate a clear need for environmental scientists to embrace multilevel meta-analytic models, which explicitly model dependence among effect sizes, rather than the commonly used random-effects models. Further, we discuss how reporting and visual presentations of meta-analytic results can be much improved by following reporting guidelines such as PRISMA-EcoEvo (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses for Ecology and Evolutionary Biology). This paper, along with the accompanying online tutorial, serves as a practical guide on conducting a complete set of meta-analytic procedures (i.e., meta-analysis, heterogeneity quantification, meta-regression, publication bias tests and sensitivity analysis) and also as a gateway to more advanced, yet appropriate, methods.
元分析是一种对多项研究结果进行综合的定量方法,以获得关于某种干预措施或现象的可靠证据。事实上,环境科学领域进行的元分析数量日益增加,由此产生的元分析证据常被用于环境政策制定和决策过程。我们对环境科学领域近期的元分析进行了一项调查,发现当前元分析实践和报告的标准较差。例如,在73篇被审查的元分析中,只有约40%报告了异质性(效应量之间超出抽样误差的变异),且评估发表偏倚的不到一半。此外,尽管几乎所有的元分析都有来自同一研究的多个效应量,但只有一半的元分析考虑了效应量之间的非独立性。为了改进元分析在环境科学中的应用,我们在此概述了在环境科学中进行元分析的实用指南。我们描述了效应量和元分析的关键概念,并详细说明了拟合多层次元分析和元回归模型以及进行相关发表偏倚检验的程序。我们表明环境科学家迫切需要采用多层次元分析模型,该模型明确对效应量之间的依赖性进行建模,而不是常用的随机效应模型。此外,我们讨论了遵循PRISMA-EcoEvo(生态学和进化生物学系统评价与元分析的首选报告项目)等报告指南如何能大大改进元分析结果的报告和可视化展示。本文以及随附的在线教程,可作为进行全套元分析程序(即元分析、异质性量化、元回归、发表偏倚检验和敏感性分析)的实用指南,也是通向更先进但适用方法的入门指南。
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