Molecular forecasting of domoic acid during a pervasive toxic diatom bloom.

In 2015, the largest recorded harmful algal bloom (HAB) occurred in the Northeast Pacific, causing nearly 100 million dollars in damages to fisheries and killing many protected marine mammals. Dominated by the toxic diatom , this bloom produced high levels of the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA). Through molecular and transcriptional characterization of 52 near-weekly phytoplankton net-tow samples collected at a bloom hotspot in Monterey Bay, California, we identified active transcription of known DA biosynthesis () genes from the three identified toxigenic species, including as the primary origin of toxicity. Elevated expression of silicon transporters () during the bloom supports the previously hypothesized role of dissolved silica (Si) exhaustion in contributing to bloom physiology and toxicity. We find that coexpression of the and genes serves as a robust predictor of DA one week in advance, potentially enabling the forecasting of DA-producing HABs. We additionally present evidence that low levels of iron could have colimited the diatom population along with low Si. Iron limitation represents an overlooked driver of both toxin production and ecological success of the low-iron-adapted genus during the 2015 bloom, and increasing pervasiveness of iron limitation may fuel the escalating magnitude and frequency of toxic blooms globally. Our results advance understanding of bloom physiology underlying toxin production, bloom prediction, and the impact of global change on toxic blooms.