中国马鞍山市 2011 年至 2018 年癌症发病与趋势：基于登记的观察性研究。
The Cancer Incidence and Trends From 2011 to 2018 in Ma'anshan, China: A Registry-Based Observational Study.
机构信息
Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Management Department, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ma'anshan, China.
School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Anhui, China.
出版信息
Cancer Control. 2024 Jan-Dec;31:10732748241284537. doi: 10.1177/10732748241284537.
BACKGROUND
The cancer burden in China has been increasing over the decades. However, the cancer incidence remains unknown in Ma'anshan, which is one of the central cities in the Yangtze River Delta in Eastern China. The study was designed to describe the cancer incidence and trends in Ma'anshan from 2011 to 2018, providing information about cancer etiology that is useful for prevention programs.
METHODS
The cancer incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) were calculated using the cancer registry data in Ma'anshan during 2011-2018. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the ASIR was analyzed by the Joinpoint regression analysis. Age, period, and cohort effects on cancer incidence were estimated through the age-period-cohort model.
RESULTS
There were 13,508 newly diagnosed cancer cases in males and 9558 in females in Ma'anshan during 2011-2018. The ASIR maintained a steady trend in both males and females. Age effects showed that cancer risk increased with age in both genders; no visible period effects were detected during this study period. Cohort effects changed slowly until the end of the 1950s, then started decreasing in males while increasing in females after 1960. Lung, gastric, female breast, colorectal, cervical, esophageal, liver, thyroid, lymphoma, and pancreatic cancer were the most common cancers in Ma'anshan during the study period. The ASIR of gastric cancer (AAPC: -3.72%), esophageal cancer (AAPC: -8.30%), and liver cancer (AAPC: -5.55%) declined, while that of female breast cancer (AAPC: 3.91%), colorectal cancer (AAPC: 3.23%), and thyroid cancer (AAPC: 22.38%) rose.
CONCLUSION
During 2011-2018, the cancer incidence in Ma'anshan was lower than that in China, nation-wide. The incidence of upper gastrointestinal cancer decreased gradually while female breast, colorectal, and thyroid cancers showed an upward trend, consistent with the changes in the cancer spectrum in China. Further studies should be designed to discover the underlying causes of these findings.
背景
几十年来，中国的癌症负担一直在增加。然而，作为中国东部长江三角洲的中心城市之一的马鞍山市，其癌症发病率仍不清楚。本研究旨在描述 2011 年至 2018 年马鞍山市的癌症发病率和趋势，为预防计划提供有关癌症病因的有用信息。
方法
使用马鞍山市癌症登记处 2011-2018 年的数据计算癌症发病率和年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）。通过 Joinpoint 回归分析分析 ASIR 的平均年变化百分比（AAPC）。通过年龄-时期-队列模型估计癌症发病率的年龄、时期和队列效应。
结果
2011-2018 年，马鞍山市男性新诊断癌症病例 13508 例，女性 9558 例。男女的 ASIR 均呈稳定趋势。年龄效应表明，两性的癌症风险随年龄增长而增加；在此研究期间未发现明显的时期效应。队列效应直到 20 世纪 50 年代末才缓慢变化，之后男性的队列效应开始下降，而女性的队列效应在 20 世纪 60 年代后开始上升。肺癌、胃癌、女性乳腺癌、结直肠癌、宫颈癌、食管癌、肝癌、甲状腺癌、淋巴瘤和胰腺癌是研究期间马鞍山市最常见的癌症。胃癌（AAPC：-3.72%）、食管癌（AAPC：-8.30%）和肝癌（AAPC：-5.55%）的 ASIR 下降，而女性乳腺癌（AAPC：3.91%）、结直肠癌（AAPC：3.23%）和甲状腺癌（AAPC：22.38%）的 ASIR 上升。
结论
2011-2018 年，马鞍山市的癌症发病率低于全国水平。上消化道癌的发病率逐渐下降，而女性乳腺癌、结直肠癌和甲状腺癌呈上升趋势，与中国癌症谱的变化一致。应进一步设计研究以发现这些发现的根本原因。
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