Beijing Key Laboratory of Diabetes Research and Care, Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Beijing Diabetes Institute, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Beijing Municipal Health Big Data and Policy Research Center, Beijing, China.
JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2024 Aug 7;10:e55657. doi: 10.2196/55657.
Sex is a crucial factor in the development, progression, and treatment of cancer, making it vital to examine cancer incidence trends by sex for effective prevention strategies.
This study aimed to assess the incidence of cancer in China between 2007 and 2021, with a focus on sex-based trends.
A population-based cancer registry comprising 14.14 million individuals was maintained between 2007 and 2021 by the Beijing Municipal Health Big Data and Policy Research Center. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of cancers were calculated using the Segi population. The average annual percentage of change (AAPC) was evaluated using the joinpoint regression model, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict cancer incidence in the next 10 years.
From 2007 to 2021, the study included 651,342 incident patients with cancer, of whom 51.2% (n=333,577) were women. The incidence indicated by the ASR for all cancers combined was 200.8 per 100,000 for women and 184.4 per 100,000 for men. The increase in incidence indicated by AAPC for all malignancies combined significantly increased in women between 2007 and 2021 (AAPC=3.1%; P<.001), whereas it remained constant in men (AAPC=0.3%; P=.30). Although the overall incidence of all cancers indicated by AAPC increased in young men (AAPC=3.2%; P=.01), the greatest increase was observed among young women (AAPC=6.1%; P<.001). The incidence rate ratio for cancer in women increased among subsequent younger generations compared with patients born in the 1962-1966 cohort. The ASR in women will increase 1.6-fold over the next 10 years, with women having twice the incidence rate of men by 2031.
The rising incidence of cancer among women in China has become a growing concern, emphasizing the need for increased efforts in cancer prevention and early screening, especially among young women.
性别是癌症发展、进展和治疗的关键因素，因此，为了制定有效的预防策略，对癌症发病率的性别趋势进行研究至关重要。
本研究旨在评估 2007 年至 2021 年期间中国癌症的发病率，重点关注基于性别的趋势。
北京市卫生大数据和政策研究中心于 2007 年至 2021 年期间建立了一个基于人群的癌症登记处，包含 1414 万人。使用 Segi 人口计算癌症的年龄标准化率（ASR）。使用 Joinpoint 回归模型评估平均年度百分比变化（AAPC），并使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测未来 10 年的癌症发病率。
从 2007 年至 2021 年，本研究共纳入 651342 例新发癌症患者，其中 51.2%（n=333577）为女性。所有癌症的 ASR 合计为女性 200.8/100000，男性 184.4/100000。2007 年至 2021 年期间，所有恶性肿瘤的 AAPC 均呈上升趋势，女性显著增加（AAPC=3.1%；P<.001），而男性保持不变（AAPC=0.3%；P=.30）。虽然年轻男性的所有癌症的 AAPC 呈总体上升趋势（AAPC=3.2%；P=.01），但年轻女性的增幅最大（AAPC=6.1%；P<.001）。与出生于 1962-1966 年 cohort的患者相比，随后年轻一代女性癌症的发病率比值比增加。未来 10 年，女性的 ASR 将增加 1.6 倍，到 2031 年，女性的癌症发病率将是男性的两倍。
中国女性癌症发病率的上升已成为一个日益严重的问题，这强调了需要加强癌症预防和早期筛查工作，特别是针对年轻女性。
