Hacker J David, Dribe Martin, Helgertz Jonas
Institute for Social Research and Data Innovation, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Department of Economic History and Centre for Economic Demography, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Soc Sci Hist. 2023 Fall;47(3):333-366. doi: 10.1017/ssh.2023.12. Epub 2023 Jun 23.
With only a few exceptions, the historical study of individual-level correlates of child mortality in the United States has been limited to the period surrounding the turn of the twentieth century, when children ever born and children surviving data collected by the 1900 and 1910 censuses allow indirect estimation of child mortality. The recent release of linked census data, such as the IPUMS MLP datasets, allows a different type of indirect estimation over a longer period. By following couples across subsequent decennial censuses, it is possible to infer child mortality by measuring whether couples' own children in the first census were still present in the second census. We focus our analysis on children aged 1-3 in the first of two linked censuses, who were less likely to be undercounted by the census than infants, and unlikely to be living apart from their parents in the second census. We estimate child mortality over the intervening decade and use OLS regression to correlate that mortality to the residence location and socioeconomic characteristics of their parents' households. We limit our analysis to three panel datasets for married couples linked between the 1850-60, 1860-70, and 1870-80 censuses, when real estate and personal estate wealth data were collected. Our results indicate a significant negative relationship between wealth and child mortality across all regions of the United States and over the entire period examined.
除了少数例外情况,美国对儿童死亡率个体层面相关因素的历史研究仅限于二十世纪之交前后的时期,当时1900年和1910年人口普查收集的出生儿童和存活儿童数据使得能够间接估计儿童死亡率。最近发布的关联人口普查数据,如综合公共使用微数据系列(IPUMS)的多世代人口数据集(MLP),使得能够在更长时期内进行不同类型的间接估计。通过追踪夫妇在随后的十年一次人口普查中的情况,可以通过测量第一次人口普查中夫妇自己的孩子在第二次人口普查中是否仍然存在来推断儿童死亡率。我们将分析重点放在两个关联人口普查中的第一个普查中年龄在1至3岁的儿童身上,这些儿童比婴儿被人口普查漏计的可能性更小,并且在第二次人口普查中不太可能与父母分开居住。我们估计这十年间的儿童死亡率,并使用普通最小二乘法回归将该死亡率与他们父母家庭的居住地点和社会经济特征相关联。我们将分析限于1850 - 1860年、1860 - 1870年和1870 - 1880年人口普查之间关联的三个已婚夫妇面板数据集,当时收集了房地产和个人财产财富数据。我们的结果表明,在美国所有地区以及在所研究的整个时期内,财富与儿童死亡率之间存在显著的负相关关系。