Ma Zilong, Yang Zhichen, Li Qingwen, Tu Xianqing, Xu Yichun
School of Economics, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou, 510320, China.
School of Economics, Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510632, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Sep 12;10(18):e37742. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e37742. eCollection 2024 Sep 30.
The complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the international situation have prompted the development of city clusters to focus more on resilience and the building of infrastructures and safeguards. Chinese-style modernization proposes a new realization path for the high-quality development (HQD) of city clusters, based on which an evaluation system for HQD indicators of city clusters is constructed. We also measured the HQD levels of 19 city clusters from 2011 to 2021 and analyzed their spatial differentiation characteristics, agglomeration evolution characteristics, and influencing factors by using kernel density, standard deviation ellipse, Moran's index, geographic detector, and geographically weighted regression. The study revealed that (1) the overall level of HQD of China's city clusters shows a trend of continuous growth, and there is obvious polarization in the high quality of city clusters in different regions. (2) The spatial distribution of HQD in city clusters decreased in the "East, Center and West" direction, but the spatial patterns of "Southeast highlighting" and "Northwest rising" became more obvious. (3) The HQD of city clusters shows obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics and overall presents a spatial pattern of "hot in the east and cold in the west", with the scope of the cold spot area gradually shrinking, and the hot spot area tends to spread outward, with mature city clusters at the core. (4) The influencing factors of HQD in Chinese city clusters are diverse, with financial levels, digital economics, human capital and green innovations having decreasing influence on HQD in city clusters but showing an obvious two-factor enhancement trend, with financial levels being able to effectively stimulate the driving potential of other factors. Financial levels can effectively stimulate the driving potential of other factors. (5) The coefficients of the driving factors affecting the HQD of city clusters vary significantly spatially, with human capital, financial levels and green innovations showing a north‒south hierarchical banded distribution of "high in the south and low in the north", and digital economy shows an east-west hierarchical belt distribution of "high west and low east". Based on the above conclusions, the realization path of accelerating the HQD of China's city clusters is proposed by optimizing the functional division of labor of the city clusters, giving full play to the comparative advantages of the hinterland city clusters, and relying on the high level of the city clusters for opening up.
国际形势的复杂性、严峻性和不确定性，促使城市群发展更加注重韧性以及基础设施和保障体系建设。中国式现代化为城市群高质量发展提出了新的实现路径，在此基础上构建了城市群高质量发展指标评价体系。我们还测度了2011—2021年19个城市群的高质量发展水平，并运用核密度、标准差椭圆、莫兰指数、地理探测器和地理加权回归等方法分析了它们的空间分异特征、集聚演化特征及影响因素。研究表明：（1）中国城市群高质量发展总体水平呈持续增长态势，不同区域城市群高质量发展存在明显极化现象。（2）城市群高质量发展空间分布呈“东、中、西”递减方向，但“东南凸显”“西北崛起”的空间格局更加明显。（3）城市群高质量发展呈现明显的空间集聚特征，总体呈现“东热西冷”的空间格局，冷点区范围逐渐缩小，热点区趋于向外扩散，以成熟城市群为核心。（4）中国城市群高质量发展的影响因素多样，金融水平、数字经济、人力资本和绿色创新对城市群高质量发展的影响呈递减趋势，但呈现明显的双因素增强趋势，金融水平能够有效激发其他因素的驱动潜力。金融水平能够有效激发其他因素的驱动潜力。（5）影响城市群高质量发展的驱动因素系数在空间上存在显著差异，人力资本、金融水平和绿色创新呈现“南高北低”的南北分层带状分布，数字经济呈现“西高东低”的东西分层带状分布。基于上述结论，提出通过优化城市群功能分工、充分发挥内陆城市群比较优势、依托城市群高水平开放来加快中国城市群高质量发展的实现路径。
