Ochi Anis, Saidi Anis
Université de Jendouba, Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et de Gestion de Jendouba, LR: Valorisation du Patrimoine Naturel et Culturel, 8189, Jendouba, Tunisia.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Nov;370:122613. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122613. Epub 2024 Sep 25.
Unlike the previous literature on climate change, this study employed the panel vector autoregressive model to examine the impact of population growth, governance quality, and economic growth on global warming. Moreover, we used the impulse response function tool, which was developed in the same context, to better understand the reaction of the main variables of interest, per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, aftershocks on population change, governance quality, and economic growth variables. Finally, the analysis was completed by the variance decomposition of all variables. These analyses were conducted for the 33 most polluting countries in terms of GHG from 1996 to 2019. The results show that both population growth and economic growth have a positive and significant influence on climate change and can strongly explain the gradual rise in Earth's temperature. Our empirical results show that there is a negative and significant relationship between the quality of governance and GHG emissions. The results show that there is a bidirectional causality between GHG emissions, population and economic growth. Based on the findings, this study proposes several policy recommendations.
与以往关于气候变化的文献不同，本研究采用面板向量自回归模型来检验人口增长、治理质量和经济增长对全球变暖的影响。此外，我们使用了在相同背景下开发的脉冲响应函数工具，以更好地理解感兴趣的主要变量——人均温室气体（GHG）排放对人口变化、治理质量和经济增长变量冲击的反应。最后，通过对所有变量的方差分解完成分析。这些分析针对1996年至2019年期间温室气体污染最严重的33个国家进行。结果表明，人口增长和经济增长均对气候变化有正向且显著的影响，并且能够有力地解释地球温度的逐渐上升。我们的实证结果表明，治理质量与温室气体排放之间存在负向且显著的关系。结果显示，温室气体排放、人口和经济增长之间存在双向因果关系。基于这些发现，本研究提出了若干政策建议。
