Akan Taner
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, Beyazıt, Istanbul, 34452, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jan;30(1):2042-2060. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-22201-x. Epub 2022 Aug 4.
Investigating the effect of renewable energy on the drivers of climate change correctly is significant as it is the basic source of climate change mitigation. In the extant literature, its effect on climate change has been estimated predominantly by regressing aggregate rather than sectoral renewable energy use either on aggregate greenhouse gas emissions or the components of greenhouse gases (GHGs) like carbon dioxide emissions. Against this backdrop, the paper investigates if we should estimate the nexus (i) by the causal effects running from aggregate or sectoral renewable energy use to GHG emissions and (ii) by the causal effects running from renewable energy consumption to aggregate GHG emissions or to its components like carbon dioxide (CO) emissions. To this end, the paper introduces negative and positive (functional) complementarity between sectoral renewable energy consumptions in reducing or increasing GHG emissions, takes 20 OECD countries from 1990 to 2019, and uses augmented and non-augmented auto-regressive distributed lag approach and vector error correction mechanism. The study finds substantial differences among the results coming out of (i) regressing aggregate and sectoral renewable energy consumption on GHG emissions and (ii) regressing renewable energy consumption on aggregate GHG emissions and on CO emissions. The paper suggests regressing sectoral rather than aggregate renewable energy consumption on the components of aggregate GHG emissions like CO emissions rather than on aggregate GHG emissions to produce workable, specific, and conclusive policy alternatives.
正确研究可再生能源对气候变化驱动因素的影响具有重要意义,因为它是缓解气候变化的基本来源。在现有文献中,其对气候变化的影响主要是通过将可再生能源的总体使用量而非部门使用量与总体温室气体排放量或二氧化碳排放量等温室气体成分进行回归来估计的。在此背景下,本文研究了我们是否应该(i)通过从总体或部门可再生能源使用量到温室气体排放的因果效应,以及(ii)通过从可再生能源消费到总体温室气体排放或其成分(如二氧化碳排放)的因果效应来估计这种关系。为此,本文引入了部门可再生能源消费在减少或增加温室气体排放方面的负向和正向(功能)互补性,选取了1990年至2019年的20个经合组织国家,并使用了增强型和非增强型自回归分布滞后方法以及向量误差修正机制。研究发现,(i)将总体和部门可再生能源消费与温室气体排放进行回归,以及(ii)将可再生能源消费与总体温室气体排放和二氧化碳排放进行回归所得到的结果存在显著差异。本文建议,应将部门可再生能源消费而非总体可再生能源消费与总体温室气体排放的成分(如二氧化碳排放)进行回归,而不是与总体温室气体排放进行回归,以产生可行、具体且结论性的政策选择。