He Yan, Shu Qi, Wang Qiang, Song Zhenya, Zhang Min, Wang Shizhu, Zhang Lujun, Bi Haibo, Pan Rongrong, Qiao Fangli
First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao, China.
Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center, Qingdao, China.
Nat Commun. 2024 Sep 26;15(1):8265. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-52760-1.
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) and total heat exposures (THEs), extreme warming events occurring across the global oceans, seriously threaten marine ecosystems and coastal communities as the climate warms. However, future changes in MHWs and THEs in the Arctic Ocean, where unique marine ecosystems are present, are still unclear. Here, based on the latest CMIP6 climate simulations, we find that both MHWs and THEs in the Arctic Ocean are anticipated to intensify in a warming climate, mainly due to Arctic sea ice decline and long-term warming trend, respectively. Particularly striking is the projected rise in MHW mean intensity during the 21 century in the Arctic Ocean, surpassing the global average by more than sevenfold under the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario. This phenomenon, coined the 'Arctic MHW Amplification', underscores an impending and disproportionately elevated threat to the Arctic marine life, necessitating targeted conservation and adaptive strategies.
海洋热浪（MHWs）和总热暴露（THEs）是全球海洋发生的极端变暖事件，随着气候变暖，严重威胁着海洋生态系统和沿海社区。然而，在拥有独特海洋生态系统的北冰洋，未来海洋热浪和总热暴露的变化仍不明确。在此，基于最新的CMIP6气候模拟，我们发现，由于北极海冰减少和长期变暖趋势，北冰洋的海洋热浪和总热暴露预计都会在气候变暖的情况下加剧。特别显著的是，预计21世纪北冰洋海洋热浪的平均强度将上升，在CMIP6 SSP585情景下，超过全球平均水平七倍多。这种现象被称为“北极海洋热浪放大效应”，突出了对北极海洋生物迫在眉睫且不成比例的更大威胁，因此需要有针对性的保护和适应性策略。
