Gonzaga Marlon Nunes, de Oliveira Marcelo Martins, Atman Allbens Picardi Faria
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Modelagam Matemática e Computacional, Centro Federal de Educação Tecnológica de Minas Gerais-CEFET-MG, Ave. Amazonas, 7675-Nova Gameleira, Belo Horizonte 30510-000, MG, Brazil.
Departamento de Estatística, Física e Matemática, Universidade Federal de São João del-Rei-UFSJ, Ouro Branco 36495-000, MG, Brazil.
Entropy (Basel). 2024 Aug 30;26(9):739. doi: 10.3390/e26090739.
This study presents extended Immunity Agent-Based Model (IABM) simulations to evaluate vaccination strategies in controlling the spread of infectious diseases. The application of IABM in the analysis of vaccination configurations is innovative, as a vaccinated individual can be infected depending on how their immune system acts against the invading pathogen, without a pre-established infection rate. Analysis at the microscopic level demonstrates the impact of vaccination on individual immune responses and infection outcomes, providing a more realistic representation of how the humoral response caused by vaccination affects the individual's immune defense. At the macroscopic level, the effects of different population-wide vaccination strategies are explored, including random vaccination, targeted vaccination of specific demographic groups, and spatially focused vaccination. The results indicate that increased vaccination rates are correlated with decreased infection and mortality rates, highlighting the importance of achieving herd immunity. Furthermore, strategies focused on vulnerable populations or densely populated regions prove to be more effective in reducing disease transmission compared to randomly distributed vaccination. The results presented in this work show that vaccination strategies focused on highly crowded regions are more efficient in controlling epidemics and outbreaks. Results suggest that applying vaccination only in the densest region resulted in the suppression of infection in that region, with less intense viral spread in areas with lower population densities. Strategies focused on specific regions, in addition to being more efficient in reducing the number of infected and dead people, reduce costs related to transportation, storage, and distribution of doses compared to the random vaccination strategy. Considering that, despite scientific efforts to consolidate the use of mass vaccination, the accessibility, affordability, and acceptability of vaccines are problems that persist, investing in the study of strategies that mitigate such issues is crucial in the development and application of government policies that make immunization systems more efficient and robust.
本研究展示了基于免疫主体模型（IABM）的扩展模拟，以评估控制传染病传播的疫苗接种策略。IABM在疫苗接种配置分析中的应用具有创新性，因为接种疫苗的个体可能会被感染，这取决于其免疫系统对入侵病原体的反应方式，而无需预先设定感染率。微观层面的分析展示了疫苗接种对个体免疫反应和感染结果的影响，更真实地呈现了疫苗接种引起的体液反应如何影响个体的免疫防御。在宏观层面，探讨了不同的全人群疫苗接种策略的效果，包括随机接种、针对特定人群的靶向接种以及空间聚焦接种。结果表明，疫苗接种率的提高与感染率和死亡率的降低相关，凸显了实现群体免疫的重要性。此外，与随机接种相比，针对弱势群体或人口密集地区的策略在减少疾病传播方面更有效。本研究结果表明，针对高度拥挤地区的疫苗接种策略在控制疫情和爆发方面更有效。结果显示，仅在人口最密集地区进行疫苗接种可抑制该地区的感染，在人口密度较低地区病毒传播强度较小。与随机接种策略相比，针对特定地区的策略不仅在减少感染和死亡人数方面更有效，还降低了与疫苗运输、储存和分发相关的成本。考虑到尽管科学界努力巩固大规模疫苗接种的使用，但疫苗的可及性、可负担性和可接受性仍然是问题，研究减轻这些问题的策略对于制定使免疫系统更高效、更强大的政府政策至关重要。
