He Xiang, Hu Yanzhu, Yang Xiaojun, Wang Song, Wang Yingjian
School of Intelligent Engineering and Automation, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China.
Unit 63892 of PLA, Luoyang 471000, China.
Entropy (Basel). 2024 Sep 3;26(9):755. doi: 10.3390/e26090755.
In recent years, urban floods have occurred frequently in China. Therefore, there is an urgent need to strengthen urban flood resilience. This paper proposed a hybrid multi-criteria group decision-making method to assess urban flood resilience based on heterogeneous data, group decision-making methodologies, the pressure-state-response model, and social-economic-natural complex ecosystem theory (PSR-SENCE model). A qualitative and quantitative indicator system is formulated using the PSR-SENCE model. Additionally, a new weighting method for indicators, called the synthesis weighting-group analytic hierarchy process (SW-GAHP), is proposed by considering both intrapersonal consistency and interpersonal consistency of decision-makers. Furthermore, an extensional group decision-making technology (EGDMT) based on heterogeneous data is proposed to evaluate qualitative indicators. The flexible parameterized mapping function (FPMF) is introduced for the evaluation of quantitative indicators. The normal cloud model is employed to handle various uncertainties associated with heterogeneous data. The evaluations for Beijing from 2017 to 2021 reveal a consistent annual improvement in urban flood resilience, with a 14.1% increase. Subsequently, optimization recommendations are presented not only for favorable indicators such as regional economic status, drainability, and public transportation service capacity but also for unfavorable indicators like flood risk and population density. This provides a theoretical foundation and a guide for making decisions about the improvement of urban flood resilience. Finally, our proposed method shows superiority and robustness through comparative and sensitivity analyses.
近年来，中国城市内涝频发。因此，迫切需要增强城市防洪韧性。本文提出了一种基于异构数据、群体决策方法、压力-状态-响应模型和社会-经济-自然复合生态系统理论（PSR-SENCE模型）的混合多准则群体决策方法来评估城市防洪韧性。利用PSR-SENCE模型构建了定性和定量指标体系。此外，通过兼顾决策者的个人一致性和人际一致性，提出了一种新的指标加权方法，即综合加权-群体层次分析法（SW-GAHP）。进一步提出了基于异构数据的可拓群体决策技术（EGDMT）来评估定性指标。引入灵活参数化映射函数（FPMF）来评估定量指标。采用正态云模型处理与异构数据相关的各种不确定性。对北京2017年至2021年的评估结果显示，城市防洪韧性逐年稳步提升，增幅为14.1%。随后，针对区域经济状况、排水能力和公共交通服务能力等有利指标以及洪水风险和人口密度等不利指标提出了优化建议。这为城市防洪韧性提升决策提供了理论基础和指导。最后，通过比较分析和敏感性分析，验证了本文所提方法的优越性和稳健性。
