The interaction between water quality and meteorological factors on chlorophyll-a concentration in Honghu Lake: based on PiecewiseSEM-generalized additive model coupling model.

In order to explore the interactive effects of environmental factors on the chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration variation in Honghu Lake, this study was based on the monitoring data of Chl-a mass concentration and water quality factors (water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, permanganate index, total nitrogen, total phosphorus) and meteorological factors (evaporation, precipitation, sunshine hours, average wind speed) at three research sites (Dakou, Chatan Island, Lantian) in Honghu Lake from January 2010 to December 2019. Time series analysis, piecewise structural equation model (PiecewiseSEM), and generalized additive model (GAM) were used to quantitatively study the spatial and temporal changes of different environmental factors and their interaction with chlorophyll-a concentration in Honghu Lake. The results showed that the effects of TN and DO on Chl-a at Dakou and Chatan Island were more significant than other environmental meteorological factors, while the effects of DO and COD on Chl-a at Lantian were more obvious. At the same time, it was found that Chl-a had a non-linear relationship with TN and DO at Dakou and Chatan Island, a non-linear relationship with DO at Lantian, and a linear relationship with COD. The interaction effect of dominant environmental meteorological factors on Chl-a was significantly higher than that of a single factor, and the explanation rates were 80.6%, 72.8%, and 64.6%, respectively. In conclusion, based on the Piecewise SEM and GAM model, it not only can reveal the influence of the interaction of influencing factors on the change of Chl-a concentration, but also has important significance for the early warning and control of lake eutrophication.