Yang Mingsheng, Huo Yiqi, Wang Lei, Wang Jialu, Zuo Shichao, Pang Chaoyun, Wang Zhengbing, Zhang Hongfei, Xu Kedong, Ma Keshi
College of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China.
Field Observation and Research Station of Green Agriculture in Dancheng County, Zhoukou 466001, China.
Insects. 2024 Aug 30;15(9):663. doi: 10.3390/insects15090663.
The plum fruit moth, Treitschke, is one of the most significant borer pests, often causing huge economic losses in fruit production. However, the potential distribution range of this economically important pest is still poorly understood. For this study, we simulated an ensemble species distribution model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of at a global scale. The results show that the suitable habitats for this moth, under current environmental conditions, are mainly distributed in Europe; East Asia, including China and Japan; Central Asia; and some parts of America. In future projections, the suitable habitats are predicted to generally expand northward, while the suitable area will remain unchanged overall. However, the area of highly suitable habitat will decrease to only 17.49% of that found under current conditions. None of the nine factors used were revealed to be predominant predictors in terms of contributing to the model, suggesting that the integrated effects of these variables shape 's distribution. In this study, the distribution range that has been predicted, especially for the regions with a highly suitable habitat, poses a high risk of outbreaks, highlighting the urgency of pest management. Moreover, in the United States of America (USA) and Japan (for which distributions were not previously recorded), especially in areas highly suitable for this moth, monitoring and quarantine measures should be strengthened to prevent the colonization and further dispersal of this pest, as seen with its close relative , which has become a cosmopolitan pest species, migrating from its native region (East Asia) to other continents, including the Americas.
李小食心虫（Treitschke）是最主要的蛀果害虫之一，常给水果生产造成巨大经济损失。然而，这种具有重要经济意义的害虫的潜在分布范围仍知之甚少。在本研究中，我们模拟了一个综合物种分布模型，以预测全球范围内李小食心虫的时空分布格局。结果表明，在当前环境条件下，这种蛾子的适宜栖息地主要分布在欧洲；东亚，包括中国和日本；中亚；以及美洲的一些地区。在未来预测中，适宜栖息地预计总体向北扩展，而适宜面积总体将保持不变。然而，高度适宜栖息地的面积将减少至当前条件下的17.49%。在用于构建模型的九个因素中，没有一个被揭示为主要预测因子，这表明这些变量的综合作用塑造了李小食心虫的分布。在本研究中，预测的分布范围，特别是高度适宜栖息地的区域，存在着李小食心虫爆发的高风险，凸显了害虫管理的紧迫性。此外，在美利坚合众国（美国）和日本（此前未记录过李小食心虫的分布），特别是在非常适合这种蛾子生存的地区，应加强监测和检疫措施，以防止这种害虫的定殖和进一步扩散，就像其近缘种梨小食心虫那样，它已成为一种世界性害虫，从其原生区域（东亚）迁移到包括美洲在内的其他大陆。
