Adaptive potential in the face of a transmissible cancer in Tasmanian devils.

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) not only cause catastrophic declines in wildlife populations but also generate selective pressures that may result in rapid evolutionary responses. One such EID is devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) in the Tasmanian devil. DFTD is almost always fatal and has reduced the average lifespan of individuals by around 2 years, likely causing strong selection for traits that reduce susceptibility to the disease, but population decline has also left Tasmanian devils vulnerable to inbreeding depression. We analysed 22 years of data from an ongoing study of a population of Tasmanian devils on Freycinet Peninsula, Tasmania, to (1) identify whether DFTD may be causing selection on body size, by estimating phenotypic and genetic correlations between DFTD and size traits, (2) estimate the additive genetic variance of susceptibility to DFTD, and (3) investigate whether size traits or susceptibility to DFTD were under inbreeding depression. We found a positive phenotypic relationship between head width and susceptibility to DFTD, but this was not underpinned by a genetic correlation. Conversely, we found a negative phenotypic relationship between body weight and susceptibility to DFTD, and there was evidence for a negative genetic correlation between susceptibility to DFTD and body weight. There was additive genetic variance in susceptibility to DFTD, head width and body weight, but there was no evidence for inbreeding depression in any of these traits. These results suggest that Tasmanian devils have the potential to respond adaptively to DFTD, although the realised evolutionary response will critically further depend on the evolution of DFTD itself.