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采用两种分析方法(逻辑回归和机器学习)研究海地家庭水处理采用的决定因素。

Determinants of adoption of household water treatment in Haiti using two analysis methods: logistic regression and machine learning.

机构信息

School of Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA E-mail:

School of Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA.

出版信息

J Water Health. 2024 Sep;22(9):1606-1617. doi: 10.2166/wh.2024.376. Epub 2024 Aug 21.

DOI:10.2166/wh.2024.376
PMID:39340374
Abstract

Household water treatment (HWT) is recommended when safe drinking water is limited. To understand determinants of HWT adoption, we conducted a cross-sectional survey with 650 households across different regions in Haiti. Data were collected on 71 demographic and psychosocial factors and 2 outcomes (self-reported and confirmed HWT use). Data were transformed into 169 possible determinants of adoption across nine categories. We assessed determinants using logistic regression and, as machine learning methods are increasingly used, random forest analyses. Overall, 376 (58%) respondents self-reported treating or purchasing water, and 123 (19%) respondents had residual chlorine in stored household water. Both logistic regression and machine learning analyses had high accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC): 0.77-0.82), and the strongest determinants in models were in the demographics and socioeconomics, risk belief, and WASH practice categories. Determinants that can be influenced inform HWT promotion in Haiti. It is recommended to increase access to HWT products, provide cash and education on water treatment to emergency-impacted populations, and focus future surveys on known determinants of adoption. We found both regression and machine learning methods need informed, thoughtful, and trained analysts to ensure meaningful results and discuss the benefits/drawbacks of analysis methods herein.

摘要

当安全饮用水有限时,推荐使用家庭水处理(HWT)。为了了解 HWT 采用的决定因素,我们在海地不同地区进行了一项包含 650 户家庭的横断面调查。数据收集了 71 个人口统计学和社会心理因素以及 2 个结果(自我报告和确认的 HWT 使用)。数据转化为九个类别中的 169 个可能的采用决定因素。我们使用逻辑回归评估了决定因素,并且由于机器学习方法越来越多地被使用,我们还使用了随机森林分析。总体而言,376 名(58%)受访者自我报告了处理或购买水,123 名(19%)受访者家中储存的水中有残留氯。逻辑回归和机器学习分析都具有很高的准确性(接受者操作特征曲线下的面积(AUC):0.77-0.82),模型中最强的决定因素是人口统计学和社会经济学、风险信念以及 WASH 实践类别。可以影响这些决定因素的方法可以为海地的 HWT 推广提供信息。建议增加 HWT 产品的获取渠道,为受紧急情况影响的人群提供现金和水处理教育,并在未来的调查中关注已知的采用决定因素。我们发现,回归和机器学习方法都需要有经验、深思熟虑和训练有素的分析师来确保有意义的结果,并在此讨论分析方法的优缺点。

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本文引用的文献

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Does a Free-Trial Approach Increase Purchase and Use of a Household Water Treatment and Safe Storage Product in Rural Haiti?免费试用方法是否会增加海地农村家庭对水疗和安全储存产品的购买和使用?
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2020 Mar;102(3):518-525. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.19-0606.
2
Understanding the effect of socio-economic characteristics and psychosocial factors on household water treatment practices in rural Nepal using Bayesian Belief Networks.运用贝叶斯信念网络理解社会经济特征和心理社会因素对尼泊尔农村家庭水处理实践的影响。
Int J Hyg Environ Health. 2019 Jun;222(5):847-855. doi: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2019.04.005. Epub 2019 Apr 29.
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A systematic review shows no performance benefit of machine learning over logistic regression for clinical prediction models.
系统评价显示,机器学习在临床预测模型中并未优于逻辑回归。
J Clin Epidemiol. 2019 Jun;110:12-22. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2019.02.004. Epub 2019 Feb 11.
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Curr Opin Psychol. 2016 Jun;9:77-82. doi: 10.1016/j.copsyc.2016.01.004.
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The Integrated Behavioural Model for Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene: a systematic review of behavioural models and a framework for designing and evaluating behaviour change interventions in infrastructure-restricted settings.综合行为模型在水、环境卫生和个人卫生领域的应用:对行为模型的系统综述以及在基础设施受限环境下设计和评估行为改变干预措施的框架。
BMC Public Health. 2013 Oct 26;13:1015. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-13-1015.
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Water, sanitation and hygiene in Haiti: past, present, and future.海地的水、环境卫生和个人卫生:过去、现在和未来。
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2013 Oct;89(4):665-670. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.13-0217.
8
Access to safe water in rural Artibonite, Haiti 16 months after the onset of the cholera epidemic.海地阿蒂博尼特农村地区在霍乱疫情爆发 16 个月后获得安全饮用水。
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2013 Oct;89(4):647-653. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.13-0308.
9
Effective use of household water treatment and safe storage in response to the 2010 Haiti earthquake.针对 2010 年海地地震,有效利用家庭水处理和安全储存。
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2013 Sep;89(3):426-33. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.13-0179. Epub 2013 Jul 8.
10
Use of household water treatment and safe storage methods in acute emergency response: case study results from Nepal, Indonesia, Kenya, and Haiti.在急性紧急情况应对中使用家庭水处理和安全储存方法:来自尼泊尔、印度尼西亚、肯尼亚和海地的案例研究结果。
Environ Sci Technol. 2012 Oct 16;46(20):11352-60. doi: 10.1021/es301842u. Epub 2012 Sep 26.