School of Public Management, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China.
School of Public Administration and Emergency Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Oct 1;19(10):e0311028. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0311028. eCollection 2024.
The fertility health of the migrating population has attracted significant attention. This article examines the impact of parental retirement on the fertility intentions of the offspring among the internal migrant population.
This study utilizes the mandatory retirement age system as an exogenous shock within a fuzzy regression discontinuity (FRD) experimental design to investigate the influence of parents' retirement on the fertility intentions of their migrant offspring and potential mechanisms.
The research findings indicate that parents' retirement significantly reduces the fertility intentions of the migrant population by 34.4%. Mechanism analysis attributes this adverse effect to the reduction in intergenerational wealth transfer due to parent's retirement. As the family's economic situation worsens, the negative impact of retirement on fertility intentions becomes more pronounced. The childcare support mechanism provided by retired grandparents can partially offset the adverse effects of the income mechanism.
This study provides recommendations for enhancing policies related to delaying retirement age and childcare.
迁移人口的生育健康引起了广泛关注。本文考察了父母退休对内部迁移人口中子女生育意愿的影响。
本研究利用强制性退休年龄制度作为模糊回归不连续性（FRD）实验设计中的一个外生冲击，以调查父母退休对移民后代生育意愿的影响及其潜在机制。
研究结果表明，父母退休显著降低了移民人口的生育意愿，降幅达 34.4%。机制分析表明，这种不利影响归因于父母退休导致代际财富转移减少。随着家庭经济状况恶化，退休对生育意愿的负面影响更加明显。退休祖父母提供的育儿支持机制可以部分抵消收入机制的不利影响。
本研究为完善延迟退休年龄和育儿相关政策提供了建议。
