Panthera, New York, NY, USA.
Department of Anthropology, University College of London, London, UK.
Sci Rep. 2024 Oct 1;14(1):22817. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-72906-x.
Wildlife tourism plays a crucial role in biodiversity conservation. However, long-term sustainability is difficult to achieve. In this paper, we use property theory to produce a mathematical model that aims to better support stakeholders from the wildlife tourism industry to better guarantee a balance between sightings probability, tourists' overall experience and operators' sharing behaviour. We illustrate our model with the case study of Porto Jofre in the Pantanal wetland, Brazil. We show that while dealing with low sighting probability, tourist operators must share information about species' locations, leading to a system of open access regarding mobility and information. However, when sightings become common, sharing must be restricted to a bounded group avoiding overcrowding, a system of limited open access. Finally, when the sighting probability is high, no sharing is needed to achieve maximum overall experience. Our case study in Porto Jofre, Pantanal, Brazil, clearly shows these shifts in terms of governance strategies. We show that by looking at sighting probability it is possible to predict the best optimal social strategy that will guarantee long-term sustainability of the wildlife tourism initiatives. We also show the need for external support on adaptation in cases where current strategies do not match the predicted ones.
野生动物旅游在生物多样性保护中起着至关重要的作用。然而，长期的可持续性很难实现。在本文中，我们使用产权理论来构建一个数学模型，旨在更好地支持野生动物旅游行业的利益相关者，以更好地保证目击概率、游客整体体验和运营商的共享行为之间的平衡。我们用巴西潘塔纳尔湿地的 Porto Jofre 案例研究来说明我们的模型。我们表明，在处理低目击概率时，旅游运营商必须共享有关物种位置的信息，从而形成关于流动性和信息的开放访问系统。然而，当目击变得常见时，共享必须限于一个有限的群体，以避免过度拥挤，即有限的开放访问系统。最后，当目击概率很高时，不需要共享就可以获得最大的整体体验。我们在巴西潘塔纳尔湿地 Porto Jofre 的案例研究清楚地显示了这些治理策略的转变。我们表明，通过观察目击概率，可以预测出最佳的社会策略，以保证野生动物旅游活动的长期可持续性。我们还表明，在当前策略不符合预测策略的情况下，需要外部支持来适应。
