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关于“新一轮”中美贸易摩擦对中国对外贸易产业政策及高质量发展影响的实证证据。

Empirical evidence on the impact of the "new round" of Sino-US trade frictions on China's foreign trade industrial policy and high-quality development.

作者信息

Leihua He, Fan Sun

机构信息

School of Economics & Management, Northwest University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China.

School of Management and Economics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2024 Oct 2;19(10):e0309458. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0309458. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

The global attention on industrial policy's effectiveness spans across various sectors, particularly in international trade where the focus is on enhancing the quality of foreign trade, which is crucial to understand how research hotspots and key issues can synergize. We consider the 2018 "new round" of Sino-US trade friction as an external event and analyze panel data from 2009 to 2022 comprising 1141 Chinese A-share listed enterprises. Our empirical research unequivocally demonstrates that industrial policy has significantly propelled China's foreign trade towards high-quality development by 1.8240%. We conducted rigorous tests for robustness, heterogeneity, and endogeneity. Additionally, our results reveal that inhibitory influences arising from industrial policy on total assets or R&D investment attenuate this promotion effect; There exists a diminishing promotion effect between total assets and R&D investment. Our paper provides valuable insights into understanding their logical relationship while offering guidance for enterprises, markets, and governments in overcoming challenges collectively.

摘要

全球对产业政策有效性的关注跨越多个领域,尤其是在国际贸易中,重点在于提升对外贸易质量,理解研究热点和关键问题如何协同至关重要。我们将2018年“新一轮”中美贸易摩擦视为外部事件,并分析了2009年至2022年涵盖1141家中国A股上市公司的面板数据。我们的实证研究明确表明,产业政策显著推动中国对外贸易实现了1.8240%的高质量发展。我们进行了严格的稳健性、异质性和内生性检验。此外,我们的结果显示,产业政策对总资产或研发投资产生的抑制性影响会削弱这种促进作用;总资产与研发投资之间的促进作用存在递减效应。我们的论文为理解它们的逻辑关系提供了有价值的见解,同时为企业、市场和政府共同应对挑战提供了指导。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/029f/11446427/1217430156fd/pone.0309458.g001.jpg

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