Department of Official Statistics, Eastern Africa Statistical Training Centre, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Department of Statistics, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
BMC Med Res Methodol. 2024 Oct 2;24(1):225. doi: 10.1186/s12874-024-02348-6.
Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs) are health-threatening conditions that account for high mortality in the world. Approximately 23.6 million deaths due to CVD is expected in the year 2030 worldwide. The CVD burden is more severe in developing countries, including Tanzania.
This study analyzed the spatial-temporal trends and determinants of cardiovascular diseases in Tanzania from 2010 to 2019.
Individual data were extracted from Jakaya Kikwete Cardiac Institute (JKCI), Mbeya Zonal Referral Hospital (MZRH), Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre (KCMC) and Bugando hospitals and the geographical data from TMA. The model containing spatial and temporal components was analyzed using the Bayesian hierarchical method implemented using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA).
The results found that the incidence of CVD increased from 2010 to 2014 and decreased from 2015 to 2019. The southern highlands, lake, central and coastal zones were more likely to have CVD problems than others. It was also revealed that people aged 60-64 years OR = 1.49, females OR = 1.51, smokers OR = 1.76, alcohol drinkers OR = 1.48, and overweight OR = 1.89 were more likely to have CVD problems. Additionally, a 1C increase in the average annual air maximum temperature was related to a 14% risk of developing CVD problems. The study revealed that the model, which included spatial and temporal random effects, was the best-predicting model.
The study shows a decreased CVD incidence rate from 2015 to 2019. The CVD incidences occurred more in Tanzania's coastal and lake areas between 2010 and 2019. The demographic, lifestyle and geographical risk factors were significantly associated with the CVD.
心血管疾病（CVDs）是对健康构成威胁的疾病，导致全球死亡率居高不下。预计到 2030 年，全球将有 2360 万人死于 CVD。在包括坦桑尼亚在内的发展中国家，CVD 负担更为严重。
本研究分析了 2010 年至 2019 年期间坦桑尼亚心血管疾病的时空趋势和决定因素。
个体数据从 Jakaya Kikwete 心脏研究所（JKCI）、姆贝亚地区转诊医院（MZRH）、乞力马扎罗基督教医疗中心（KCMC）和布干达医院提取，地理数据从 TMA 提取。使用贝叶斯层次模型分析包含时空成分的模型，该模型使用集成嵌套拉普拉斯逼近（INLA）实现。
结果发现，CVD 的发病率从 2010 年到 2014 年增加，从 2015 年到 2019 年减少。南部高地、湖泊、中部和沿海地区比其他地区更容易出现 CVD 问题。研究还表明，60-64 岁人群的 OR=1.49，女性 OR=1.51，吸烟者 OR=1.76，饮酒者 OR=1.48，超重者 OR=1.89，更容易出现 CVD 问题。此外，平均年最高空气温度每增加 1°C，患 CVD 问题的风险就增加 14%。研究表明，包含时空随机效应的模型是预测效果最佳的模型。
研究表明，2015 年至 2019 年期间 CVD 发病率有所下降。2010 年至 2019 年期间，坦桑尼亚沿海和湖泊地区的 CVD 发病率更高。人口统计学、生活方式和地理风险因素与 CVD 显著相关。
