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气候变化下沿海城市的一种新型多灾害风险评估框架。

A novel multi-hazard risk assessment framework for coastal cities under climate change.

作者信息

Laino Emilio, Toledo Ignacio, Aragonés Luis, Iglesias Gregorio

机构信息

School of Engineering and Architecture & Environmental Research Institute, MaREI, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland.

Department of Civil Engineering, University of Alicante, Carretera Sant Vicent del Raspeig s/n, 03690 Alicante, Spain.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Dec 1;954:176638. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176638. Epub 2024 Oct 2.

Abstract

Coastal cities, as centres of human habitation, economic activity and biodiversity, are confronting the ever-escalating challenges posed by climate change. In this work, a novel Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment framework is presented with the focus on Coastal City Living Labs. The methodology provides a comprehensive assessment of climate-related hazards, including sea-level rise, coastal flooding, coastal erosion, land flooding, heavy precipitation, extreme temperatures, heatwaves, cold spells, landslides and strong winds. Its application is illustrated through a case study: the Coastal City Living Lab of Benidorm, Spain. The methodology incorporates remote sensing data from various satellite sources, such as ERA5, Urban Atlas and MERIT DEM, to evaluate multiple hazards through a systematic and standardized indicator-based approach, offering a holistic risk profile that allows for comparison with other European coastal cities. The integration of remote sensing data enhances the accuracy and resolution of hazard indicators, providing detailed insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of climate risks. The incorporation of local expertise through the Coastal City Living Lab concept enriches data collection and ensures context-specific adequacy. The integration of local studies and historical extreme climate events enhances the validity and context of the risk indicators. The findings align with regional trends and reveal specific vulnerabilities, particularly related to heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding. Despite its strengths, the MHRA methodology faces limitations, including reliance on outdated datasets and the complexity of integrating multiple hazards. Continuous updates and adaptive management strategies are essential to maintain the accuracy and relevance of risk assessments. The broader implications of the methodology for global coastal cities highlight its potential as a model for developing targeted adaptation strategies.

摘要

沿海城市作为人类居住、经济活动和生物多样性的中心,正面临着气候变化带来的不断升级的挑战。在这项工作中,提出了一个新颖的多灾害风险评估框架,重点是沿海城市生活实验室。该方法对与气候相关的灾害进行了全面评估,包括海平面上升、沿海洪水、海岸侵蚀、陆地洪水、强降水、极端温度、热浪、寒潮、山体滑坡和强风。通过一个案例研究说明了其应用:西班牙贝尼多姆的沿海城市生活实验室。该方法纳入了来自各种卫星源的遥感数据,如ERA5、城市地图集和MERIT DEM,通过一种系统的、基于标准化指标的方法来评估多种灾害,提供一个整体风险概况,以便与其他欧洲沿海城市进行比较。遥感数据的整合提高了灾害指标的准确性和分辨率,提供了对气候风险时空动态的详细洞察。通过沿海城市生活实验室概念纳入当地专业知识,丰富了数据收集并确保了针对具体情况的充分性。将当地研究和历史极端气候事件相结合,提高了风险指标的有效性和背景。研究结果与区域趋势一致,并揭示了特定的脆弱性,特别是与热浪、强降雨和沿海洪水有关的脆弱性。尽管具有优势,但多灾害风险评估方法也面临局限性,包括对过时数据集的依赖以及整合多种灾害的复杂性。持续更新和适应性管理策略对于保持风险评估的准确性和相关性至关重要。该方法对全球沿海城市的更广泛影响突出了其作为制定有针对性适应策略模型的潜力。

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