Venable Kar'retta, Johnston John M, LeDuc Stephen D, Prieto Lourdes
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research and Development, Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling, Ecosystem Processes Division, Landscape and Aquatic Systems Modeling Branch, 960 College Station Road, Athens, GA, 30605, USA.
US EPA Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27711, USA.
Environ Model Softw. 2024 Sep;180:106134. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106134.
Wildfires in western US forests increased over the last two decades, resulting in elevated solid and nutrient loadings to streams, and occasionally threatening drinking water supplies. We demonstrated that a linked LANDIS (LANDscape DIsturbance and Succession)-VELMA (Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments) modeling approach can simulate wildland fire effects on water quality using the 2002 Colorado Hayman Fire. Utilizing LANDIS-II's forest landscape model to simulate forest composition and VELMA's eco-hydrologic model to simulate pre- and post-fire water quantity and quality, the best calibration performance yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.621 during 2000-2006 (most optimal annual - 0.921) in comparison to North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) runoff. Pre-fire modeled runoff, nitrate, and surface water temperature (SWT) correlated with observations. Simulated post-fire runoff (229%) and SWT (20.6%) were elevated relative to pre-fire, with nitrate concentrations 34 times greater than the aquatic life threshold (0.01 mg N/L).
在过去二十年中，美国西部森林火灾有所增加，导致溪流中的固体和养分含量升高，偶尔还会威胁到饮用水供应。我们证明，一种将LANDIS（景观干扰与演替）和VELMA（可视化生态系统土地管理评估）相结合的建模方法，能够利用2002年科罗拉多州海曼大火来模拟野火对水质的影响。利用LANDIS-II的森林景观模型来模拟森林组成，并利用VELMA的生态水文模型来模拟火灾前后的水量和水质，与北美土地数据同化系统（NLDAS）的径流相比，最佳校准性能在2000 - 2006年期间产生了0.621的纳什-萨特克利夫效率（NSE）（最优年度为0.921）。火灾前模拟的径流、硝酸盐和地表水温度（SWT）与观测值相关。模拟的火灾后径流（229%）和SWT（20.6%）相对于火灾前有所升高，硝酸盐浓度比水生生物阈值（0.01 mg N/L）高34倍。
