Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University, No. 601 Jinsui Road, Hongqi District, Xinxiang, 453003, Henan Province, People's Republic of China.
Beijing Key Laboratory of Antimicrobial Agents/Laboratory of Pharmacology, Institute of Medicinal Biotechnology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100050, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Oct 9;14(1):23565. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-73370-3.
Distinguishing between long-term and short-term effects allows for the identification of different response mechanisms. This study investigated the long- and short-run asymmetric impacts of climate variation on tuberculosis (TB) and constructed forecasting models using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL). TB showed a downward trend, peaking in March-May per year. A 1 h increment or decrement in aggregate sunshine hours resulted in an increase of 32 TB cases. A 1 m/s increment and decrement in average wind velocity contributed to a decrement of 3600 and 5021 TB cases, respectively (Wald long-run asymmetry test [WLR] = 13.275, P < 0.001). A 1% increment and decrement in average relative humidity contributed to an increase of 115 and 153 TB cases, respectively. A 1 hPa increment and decrement in average air pressure contributed to a decrease of 318 and 91 TB cases, respectively (WLR = 7.966, P = 0.005). ∆temperature(-), ∆(sunshine hours)( -), ∆(wind velocity)(+) and ∆(wind velocity)(-) at different lags had a meaningful short-run effect on TB. The NARDL outperformed the ARDL in forecasting. Climate variation has significant long- and short-run asymmetric impacts on TB. By incorporating both dimensions of effects into the NARDL, the accuracy of the forecasts and policy recommendations for TB can be enhanced.
区分长期和短期效应有助于确定不同的反应机制。本研究调查了气候变化对结核病（TB）的长期和短期非对称影响，并使用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）和非线性 ARDL（NARDL）构建了预测模型。TB 呈下降趋势，每年 3-5 月达到峰值。总日照时数每增加或减少 1 小时，TB 病例就会增加 32 例。平均风速每增加或减少 1 米/秒，TB 病例分别减少 3600 例和 5021 例（Wald 长期非对称性检验 [WLR] = 13.275，P < 0.001）。平均相对湿度每增加或减少 1%，TB 病例分别增加 115 例和 153 例。平均气压每增加或减少 1 小时帕，TB 病例分别减少 318 例和 91 例（WLR = 7.966，P = 0.005）。不同滞后的 ∆temperature(-)、∆(sunshine hours)(-)、∆(wind velocity)(+)和 ∆(wind velocity)(-)对 TB 具有有意义的短期影响。NARDL 在预测方面优于 ARDL。气候变化对 TB 具有显著的长期和短期非对称影响。通过将这两个维度的影响纳入 NARDL，可以提高 TB 预测的准确性和政策建议的可信度。
