Aizer Anna, Early Nancy, Eli Shari, Imbens Guido, Lee Keyoung, Lleras-Muney Adriana, Strand Alexander
Brown University, United States.
Social Security Administration, United States.
Q J Econ. 2024 Jun 8;139(4):2579-2635. doi: 10.1093/qje/qjae016. eCollection 2024 Nov.
We study the lifetime effects of the first and largest American youth employment and training program in the United States-the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), 1933-1942. We match newly digitized enrollee records to census, World War II enlistment, Social Security, and death records. We find that longer service in the CCC led to improvements in height, health status, longevity, geographic mobility, and lifetime earnings but did not improve short-term labor market outcomes, including employment and wages. We address potential selection into CCC duration using several approaches, most importantly two newly developed control-function approaches that leverage unbiased estimates of the short-term effects of a randomized controlled trial of Job Corps (the modern version of the CCC). Our findings suggest that short- and medium-term evaluations of employment programs underestimate effects because they fail to capture lifetime effects and often ignore or underestimate health and longevity benefits that increase in magnitude at later ages.
我们研究了美国首个也是规模最大的青年就业和培训项目——平民保育团(CCC,1933年至1942年)的终身影响。我们将新数字化的入伍者记录与人口普查、二战入伍、社会保障和死亡记录进行匹配。我们发现,在CCC服役时间更长会带来身高、健康状况、寿命、地理流动性和终身收入的改善,但不会改善短期劳动力市场结果,包括就业和工资。我们使用几种方法来处理CCC服役时长的潜在选择问题,最重要的是两种新开发的控制函数方法,它们利用了对就业团(CCC的现代版本)随机对照试验短期影响的无偏估计。我们的研究结果表明,就业项目的短期和中期评估低估了影响,因为它们未能捕捉到终身影响,并且往往忽略或低估了在晚年时规模会增加的健康和长寿益处。