The Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions on Reports of Domestic Violence Against Women in the Context of a Middle-Income Country: The Case of Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

The city of Belo Horizonte is a state capital in Brazil with 2.7 million people. The city is remarkable for its stubbornly high and stable levels of domestic violence, and for having implemented very restrictive responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using 260 weeks of data between 2017 and 2021, we used an Interrupted Time Series model to estimate the effect of the restrictive orders and their subsequent relief on reports of domestic violence against women. Results show that restrictive orders had a large and negative immediate impact on reports of domestic violence against women, which was immediately followed by a gradual increase towards their original level. The subsequent relief had no impact, as the series had already resumed its earlier trend by the time restrictions ended. We engage with theory and extant research from middle-income countries to consider why reports declined and why this decline was momentary. Findings contrast with research in high-income countries, which generally found increases in reports of domestic violence after implementing pandemic-related restrictions. However, results align with a single other study in Mexico, a medium-income country similar to Brazil. In light of our data's context and literature, we considered that reports of domestic violence may have declined not necessarily because of a reduction in actual incidents, but because the restrictions may have exacerbated the isolation of women in vulnerable domestic arrangements, limiting their ability to report their victimization. A stable trend in reports of domestic violence against women, which resumed even after a global pandemic, suggests that current policies have been ineffective and that addressing domestic violence requires a better understanding of related issues and evidence-based strategies. Our study also highlights the importance of considering the consequences of hastily implemented policies during a crisis. While necessary, such policies can inadvertently exacerbate issues such as social isolation.