Goncalves Vitor S, Santos Mateus R, Chai April Miin Miin
Texas State University, San Marcos, USA.
University of South Florida, Tampa, USA.
J Interpers Violence. 2025 Sep;40(17-18):4226-4251. doi: 10.1177/08862605241285922. Epub 2024 Oct 11.
The city of Belo Horizonte is a state capital in Brazil with 2.7 million people. The city is remarkable for its stubbornly high and stable levels of domestic violence, and for having implemented very restrictive responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using 260 weeks of data between 2017 and 2021, we used an Interrupted Time Series model to estimate the effect of the restrictive orders and their subsequent relief on reports of domestic violence against women. Results show that restrictive orders had a large and negative immediate impact on reports of domestic violence against women, which was immediately followed by a gradual increase towards their original level. The subsequent relief had no impact, as the series had already resumed its earlier trend by the time restrictions ended. We engage with theory and extant research from middle-income countries to consider why reports declined and why this decline was momentary. Findings contrast with research in high-income countries, which generally found increases in reports of domestic violence after implementing pandemic-related restrictions. However, results align with a single other study in Mexico, a medium-income country similar to Brazil. In light of our data's context and literature, we considered that reports of domestic violence may have declined not necessarily because of a reduction in actual incidents, but because the restrictions may have exacerbated the isolation of women in vulnerable domestic arrangements, limiting their ability to report their victimization. A stable trend in reports of domestic violence against women, which resumed even after a global pandemic, suggests that current policies have been ineffective and that addressing domestic violence requires a better understanding of related issues and evidence-based strategies. Our study also highlights the importance of considering the consequences of hastily implemented policies during a crisis. While necessary, such policies can inadvertently exacerbate issues such as social isolation.
贝洛奥里藏特市是巴西的一个州首府，人口达270万。该市以其居高不下且稳定的家庭暴力水平以及对新冠疫情实施的极为严格的应对措施而引人注目。利用2017年至2021年期间的260周数据，我们采用中断时间序列模型来估计限制令及其后续解除措施对针对妇女的家庭暴力报告的影响。结果表明，限制令对针对妇女的家庭暴力报告产生了巨大的负面影响，随后报告数量逐渐回升至原来的水平。后续的解除措施没有产生影响，因为在限制措施结束时，该序列已经恢复了早期的趋势。我们结合来自中等收入国家的理论和现有研究，来思考报告数量下降的原因以及为何这种下降是短暂的。研究结果与高收入国家的研究形成对比，高收入国家的研究通常发现实施与疫情相关的限制措施后家庭暴力报告有所增加。然而，我们的结果与墨西哥的另一项研究一致，墨西哥是一个与巴西类似的中等收入国家。鉴于我们数据的背景和文献，我们认为针对妇女的家庭暴力报告数量下降不一定是因为实际事件减少，而是因为这些限制措施可能加剧了处于弱势家庭环境中的妇女的孤立状态，限制了她们报告受侵害情况的能力。针对妇女的家庭暴力报告呈现出稳定的趋势，即使在全球疫情之后仍恢复原状，这表明当前的政策无效，解决家庭暴力问题需要更好地理解相关问题并采用基于证据的策略。我们的研究还强调了在危机期间考虑仓促实施的政策后果的重要性。虽然这些政策是必要的，但可能会无意中加剧社会孤立等问题。
