Deep Sea and Polar Fisheries Research Center and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China.
Deep Sea and Polar Fisheries Research Center and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Dec 10;955:176854. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176854. Epub 2024 Oct 11.
Global marine biodiversity is experiencing significant alterations due to climate change. Incorporating phylogenetic and functional diversity may provide novel insights into these impacts. This study used an ensemble model approach (random forest and boosted regression tree), to predict the habitat distribution of 47 fish species in the Northwestern Pacific under contemporary (2000-2014) and future scenarios (2040-2050, 2090-2100). We first examined the relationship between eleven functional traits and habitat changes, predicting the spatial distribution of functional traits within fish communities. A significant correlation was observed between temperature preference and habitat changes, highlighting the vulnerability of cold-water species and potential advantages for warm-water species in the future. Moreover, fish communities exhibited a spatial gradient distribution with southern regions characterized by shorter-lived and earlier maturity, contrasting with longer-lived and later maturity species in the north. Secondly, to assess the impact of climate change on marine biodiversity, we explored the taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity under contemporary and future scenarios, revealing higher indices in the East China Sea (ECS) and the coastal sea of Japan, with the Taiwan Strait emerging as a contemporary biodiversity hotspot. In future scenarios, the three biodiversity indices would decline in the Yellow Sea and ECS, but increase in the sea beyond the continental shelf, coastal sea of Hokkaido, and Sea of Okhotsk. Lastly, we explored processes and mechanisms in the change of community composition. By quantifying β-diversity, we identified species loss (nestedness) as the primary driver of fish community change by 2040-2050, with species replacement (turnover) predicted to become dominant in the far future. Our results explore the potential changes in multiple facets of fish biodiversity, providing crucial insights for policymakers aiming to protect fish resources and biodiversity.
由于气候变化，全球海洋生物多样性正在发生重大变化。纳入系统发育和功能多样性可能为这些影响提供新的见解。本研究使用集成模型方法（随机森林和增强回归树），预测西北太平洋 47 种鱼类在当代（2000-2014 年）和未来情景（2040-2050 年、2090-2100 年）下的栖息地分布。我们首先检查了 11 种功能特征与栖息地变化之间的关系，预测了鱼类群落内部功能特征的空间分布。观察到温度偏好与栖息地变化之间存在显著相关性，突出了冷水物种的脆弱性和未来温水物种的潜在优势。此外，鱼类群落呈现出空间梯度分布，南部地区的寿命较短，成熟较早，而北部地区的寿命较长，成熟较晚。其次，为了评估气候变化对海洋生物多样性的影响，我们在当代和未来情景下探讨了分类学、系统发育和功能多样性，发现东海（ECS）和日本沿海海域的指数较高，而台湾海峡则成为当代生物多样性热点。在未来情景下，黄海和东海的三个生物多样性指数将下降，但大陆架以外、北海道沿海和鄂霍次克海的指数将增加。最后，我们探讨了群落组成变化的过程和机制。通过量化 β多样性，我们确定到 2040-2050 年，物种损失（嵌套性）是鱼类群落变化的主要驱动因素，而物种更替（周转率）预计将在遥远的未来成为主导因素。我们的研究结果探讨了鱼类生物多样性的多个方面的潜在变化，为旨在保护鱼类资源和生物多样性的政策制定者提供了重要的见解。
