Hu Xiaotao, Qiu Teng
Department of Plastic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College No. 2, Ocheshan West Road, Yijishan Street, Jinghu District, Wuhu 241001, Anhui, China.
Am J Transl Res. 2024 Sep 15;16(9):4849-4857. doi: 10.62347/CZYH2768. eCollection 2024.
To identify risk factors of postoperative keloid scar recurrence in patients using logistic regression analysis.
A retrospective analysis was conducted with the use of clinical data collected from 132 keloid scars patients undergoing keloidectomy under local anaesthesia between January 2020 and June 2023 at The First Affiliated Hospital of the WANNAN Medical College. The recurrence of keloid scars in the included patients was analyzed, and their clinical data were subjected to univariate analysis. Factors showing significant differences were included in the multivariate logistic regression analysis. A receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was generated based on the independent risk factors to explore the predictive performance of joint-factor prediction for postoperative recurrence of keloid scars, and a corresponding Nomogram was generated.
Out of the 132 patients, 38 experienced keloid scar recurrence, accounting for 28.79% of the total cases. Logistic regression analysis identified infection, family history of keloid scars, relatively large scar size and the absence of radiotherapy and local hormone therapy as independent risk factors influencing postoperative recurrence of keloid scars. The prediction for postoperative recurrence of keloid scars based on the joint independent risk factors yielded an area under the ROC curve of 0.889, with a sensitivity, a specificity, and an accuracy of 78.72%, 86.84%, and 81.06%, respectively.
Infection, family history of keloid scars, relatively large scar size, and the absence of radiotherapy and local hormone treatment have been identified as independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence of keloid scars in patients.
采用逻辑回归分析确定瘢痕疙瘩患者术后瘢痕复发的危险因素。
回顾性分析2020年1月至2023年6月在皖南医学院第一附属医院接受局部麻醉下瘢痕疙瘩切除术的132例瘢痕疙瘩患者的临床资料。分析纳入患者瘢痕疙瘩的复发情况，并对其临床资料进行单因素分析。将显示出显著差异的因素纳入多因素逻辑回归分析。基于独立危险因素绘制受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线，以探讨联合因素预测瘢痕疙瘩术后复发的预测性能，并生成相应的列线图。
132例患者中，38例瘢痕疙瘩复发，占总病例数的28.79%。逻辑回归分析确定感染、瘢痕疙瘩家族史、瘢痕面积相对较大以及未进行放疗和局部激素治疗是影响瘢痕疙瘩术后复发的独立危险因素。基于联合独立危险因素对瘢痕疙瘩术后复发的预测，ROC曲线下面积为0.889，敏感性、特异性和准确性分别为78.72%、86.84%和81.06%。
感染、瘢痕疙瘩家族史、瘢痕面积相对较大以及未进行放疗和局部激素治疗已被确定为瘢痕疙瘩患者术后复发的独立危险因素。
