Chen Jinwei, Chang Yikun, Wu Yueqian, Tang Hui, Wu Gonghua, Sun Jie, Wang Pengyu, Hao Yuantao, Zhang Wangjian, Du Zhicheng
Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou.
Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness and Response.
J Infect Dis. 2025 Feb 20;231(2):414-423. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiae485.
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS among elderly persons presents a new public health challenge in China. We aimed to explore historical trends (2004-2018) and project the future (2019-2030) burden of HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality among the elderly in China.
We utilized data from the Data Center of China Public Health Science database on HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality, employing the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to reveal the age-period-cohort effect in the HIV/AIDS burden, and projecting the incidence and mortality rates up to 2030.
From 2004 to 2018, HIV/AIDS incidence rates increased from 0.56 to 20.78 per 100 000 for men and 0.28 to 7.84 per 100 000 for women. The mortality rates also increased in both sexes. We observed the highest age effect in incidence among men aged 70-74 years and women aged 55-59 years, with the effect estimates being 0.02 (95% confidence interval [CI], -.10 to .13) and 0.46 (95% CI, .35-.57), respectively. Similar sex disparities were observed for mortality, with the highest age effect observed in men aged 75-79 years and women aged 50-54 years. However, no significant disparities were found between men and women in the period and cohort effects. By 2030, the incidence rates were projected to be 96.25 per 100 000 in men and 44.90 per 100 000 in women, while the mortality rates were projected to be 48.27 and 13.67 per 100 000, respectively.
HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality rates rose notably among the elderly in China and are expected to keep increasing in the coming decades. Rates were consistently higher in men than in women. Tailored interventions for older men are crucial.
中国老年人中的人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）/获得性免疫综合征（AIDS）带来了新的公共卫生挑战。我们旨在探讨中国老年人HIV/AIDS发病率和死亡率的历史趋势（2004 - 2018年）并预测未来（2019 - 2030年）的负担。
我们利用中国公共卫生科学数据库数据中心关于HIV/AIDS发病率和死亡率的数据，采用贝叶斯年龄 - 时期 - 队列模型揭示HIV/AIDS负担中的年龄 - 时期 - 队列效应，并预测到2030年的发病率和死亡率。
2004年至2018年，男性HIV/AIDS发病率从每10万人0.56例增至20.78例，女性从每10万人0.28例增至7.84例。两性死亡率也有所上升。我们观察到70 - 74岁男性和55 - 59岁女性的发病率年龄效应最高，效应估计值分别为0.02（95%置信区间[CI]， - 0.10至0.13）和0.46（95%CI，0.35 - 0.57）。死亡率也观察到类似的性别差异，75 - 79岁男性和50 - 54岁女性的年龄效应最高。然而，在时期效应和队列效应方面，男女之间未发现显著差异。到2030年，预计男性发病率为每10万人96.25例，女性为每10万人44.90例，而死亡率预计分别为每10万人48.27例和13.67例。
中国老年人中HIV/AIDS发病率和死亡率显著上升，预计在未来几十年还将持续增加。男性发病率和死亡率一直高于女性。针对老年男性的针对性干预措施至关重要。
